Thursday, February 27, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-27-14

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Yen Rallies as Ukraine Tensions Escalated Yen strengthens sharply today on risk aversion as tensions in Ukraine escalated. EUR/JPY took the lead and breached minor support level at 139.21 but USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are holding above corresponding level at 101.66 and 169.11 respectively. A main focus in US session will be on whether long term treasury yields would extend recent decline and drag yen crosses lower with them. Meanwhile, Fed chair Yellen will testifies before Senate Banking Committee today but it's expected that she will just reiterate prior messages. Released from US, headline durable goods orders dropped -1.0% in January versus consensus of -0.5%. Ex-transport orders, however, rose 1.1% versus consensus of 0.2%. Initial jobless claims came in higher than expected at 348k in the week ended February 21. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 139.57; (P) 140.18; (R1) 140.70; More... EUR/JPY's sharp fall today and break of 139.21 indicates that the rebound from 136.22 has likely finished at 141.26 already. More importantly, the correction from 145.68 high is possibly still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 136.22 first. Break will target a test on 135.50 key support. On the upside, above 141.26 will extend the rebound form 136.22 to 142.41 resistance and above. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
21:45	NZD	Trade Balance (NZD) Y/Y Jan	306M	230M	523M	493M
06:45	CHF	GDP Q/Q Q4	0.20%	0.40%	0.50%
07:00	EUR	German Import Price Index M/M Jan	-0.10%	-0.10%	0.00%
08:15	CHF	Employment Level Q4	4.189M	4.191M	4.196M
08:55	EUR	German Unemployment Rate Feb	6.80%	6.80%	6.80%
08:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change Feb	-14K	-13K	-28K
09:00	EUR	M3 Money Supply Y/Y Jan	1.20%	1.10%	1.00%
10:00	EUR	Consumer Confidence Feb	-12.7	-11.7	-11.7
10:00	EUR	Economic Confidence Feb	101.2	101	100.9	101
10:00	EUR	Industrial Confidence Feb	-3.4	-4	-3.9	-3.8
10:00	EUR	Services Sentiment Feb	3.2	2.3	2.3	2.4
13:00	EUR	German CPI M/M Feb P	0.50%	0.60%	-0.60%
13:00	EUR	German CPI Y/Y Feb P	1.20%	1.30%	1.30%
13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders Jan	-1.00%	-0.50%	-4.30%	-4.20%
13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Jan	1.10%	0.20%	-1.60%	-1.30%
13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 21)	348K	333K	336K
15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage			-250B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: Dollar dropped sharply earlier today on cross-buying in yen, bids at 102.00-10 and 101.80-85 together with stops below 101.80 were cleared, however, more buy orders are expected at 101.70 (stops below 101.60-65), mixture of bids and stops is located at 101.35-45, fresh demand should emerge around 101.20-25 and 101.00.On the upside, offers in good size are still noted at 102.40, 102.60-80 region and 103.00-20 area (from Asian sovereign names), selling interest is tipped further out at 103.40-50 (stops above).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8880

As the greenback has retreated after rising to 0.8930 yesterday, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 0.8882) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.8872) would limit downside and bring another rebound later, above said resistance would add credence to our view that a temporary low is possibly formed at 0.8852

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3710

As the single currency has fallen again after intra-day initial brief recovery, suggesting the fall from 1.3773 is still in progress and may extend weakness to 1.3625 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3477-1.3773) and possibly towards 1.3590 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below latter level