Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-19-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Lifted by BoE Minutes, Yen Extends Decline

Yen weakness remains the main theme in the markets today with USD/JPY hitting new seven year high. The greenback on regained some grounds against commodity currencies. Nonetheless, dollar stays in tight range against Euro and Swiss Franc. Also, sterling is lifted mildly by less dovish than expected BoE minutes. Released from US, housing starts dropped to 1.01m annualized rate in October while building permits rose to 1.08m. Minutes of the October 29 FOMC meeting will be the next focus. Attention is on hints on how close Fed is to dropping the "considerable time" language. Also, markets would be eager to see if there's any hawkish shift in the tone of the minutes, which could pave the way for next year's rate hike.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.43; (P) 116.73; (R1) 117.14; More...

USD/JPY rises further to as high as 117.67 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally should target 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 next. On the downside, below 116.33 minor support will indicate temporary topping and bring consolidations first.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Oct 0.00% -0.10%
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Sep 1.00% 1.20% -0.10% 0.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Sep 30.0B 21.3B 18.9B 22.8B
09:30 GBP BoE Minutes
09:30 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 2--0--7 2--0--7 2--0--7
09:30 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
10:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Nov -7.6 -30.7
13:30 USD Housing Starts Oct 1.01M 1.03M 1.02M 1.04M
13:30 USD Building Permits Oct 1.08M 1.04M 1.02M 1.03M
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.7M
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes
21:45 NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 0.30% -1.00%
21:45 NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 0.20% -0.50%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Oct -1.02T -1.07T
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has surged again in NY morning, offers at 1.2550-55 and stops above there were tripped, however, sell orders in good size are still noted from 1.2580 up to 1.2600 with more stops placed above 1.2605, selling interest should emerge further out at 1.2640-50. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.2510-20, 1.2465-70 and in good size at 1.2440-45 (stops below), more buy orders are reported at 1.2420-30 with stops building up below 1.2390, buying interest is noted at 1.2375-80 and 1.2355-60 with more stops placed below barrier at 1.2350, fresh demand should emerge around 1.2325-35 and 1.2300.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5640

As the British pound has staged a quick rebound after intra-day marginal fall to 1.5590, suggesitng an intra-day low has been formed there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 1.5700, then test of previous resistance at 1.5736, however, break of latter level is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.5765-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5945-1.5590) and then test of previous resistance at 1.5781

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.2460

As the single currency has retreated after marginal rise to 1.2545, minor consolidation would be seen, however, reckon the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2507) would limit downside and bring another rise, above 1.2545 would signal the retreat from 1.2578 has ended and bring a retest of this resistance, break there would bring retracement of recent decline to 1.2600 and possibly 1.2610-15

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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