Friday, February 28, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-28-14

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Jumps as CPI Beat Expectations Euro jumps sharply against most major currencies today as inflation data eased the pressure for ECB to take immediate action to add stimulus during next week's meeting. CPI came in at 0.8% yoy in February, unchanged from upwardly revised 0.8% yoy in January. Unemployment rate was also unchanged at 12.00%. Earlier today, ECB president Draghi said that the central bank will "remain alert as to whether any indication on further downside risks to price stability emerge" and pledged that ECB stands "ready to act". EUR/USD surged through 1.3772 resistance in reaction to the news and resumed recent rebound from 1.3476. It's possibly now heading to 1.3892 (2013 high). Nonetheless, note that Swiss Franc is even stronger with EUR/CHF extending recent fall to as low as 1.2148. Other data released from Europe saw German retail sales rose 2.5% yoy in January, Swiss KOF leading indicator improved to 2.03 in February, UK Gfk consumer confidence was unchanged at -7 in February. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3659; (P) 1.3692 (R1) 1.3743; More.... EUR/USD's strong rise today and break of 1.3772 resistance indicates that rise from 1.3476 has resumed. More importantly, daily MACD was kept above signal line and there was strong support from 55 days EMA. Both have near term bullish implications. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3892 first. Break will confirm larger up trend resumption and will target 1.4 psychological level next. On the downside, break of 1.3642 is now needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Or outlook will stay mildly bullish. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
21:45	NZD	Building Permits M/M Jan	-8.30%		7.60%	7.10%
23:13	JPY	Nomura/ JMMA Manufacturing PMI Feb	55.5		56.6
23:30	JPY	National CPI Core Y/Y Jan	1.30%	1.30%	1.30%
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Feb	0.90%	0.80%	0.70%
23:30	JPY	Household Spending Y/Y Jan	1.10%	0.20%	0.70%
23:30	JPY	Unemployment Rate Jan	3.70%	3.70%	3.70%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production M/M JanPreliminar	4.00%	3.10%	0.90%
23:50	JPY	Retail Trade Y/Y Jan	4.40%	3.90%	2.60%	2.50%
00:01	GBP	Gfk Consumer Confidence Feb	-7	-6	-7
05:00	JPY	Housing Starts Y/Y Jan	12.30%	15.30%	18.00%
07:00	EUR	German Retail Sales Y/Y Jan	2.50%	1.20%	-2.50%	-1.70%
08:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicator Feb	2.03	2.03	1.98	2.01
10:00	EUR	CPI Y/Y Feb P	0.80%	0.70%	0.70%	0.80%
10:00	EUR	Unemployment Rate Jan	12.00%	12.00%	12.00%
13:30	CAD	GDP M/M Dec	-0.50%	-0.20%	0.20%
13:30	USD	GDP Annualized Q4 P	2.40%	2.70%	3.20%
13:30	USD	GDP Price Index Q4 P	1.60%	1.30%	1.30%
14:45	USD	Chicago PMI Feb		58.2	59.6
14:55	USD	U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Feb F		81.4	81.2
15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales M/M Jan		2.90%	-8.70%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rallied on higher-than-expected EMU's CPI data, stops above 1.3780 and barrier at 1.3800 were tripped, some offers are reported at 1.3825-30 and mixture of offers and stops is located further out at 1.3850, sizeable sell orders are expected to emerge around 1.3890-00. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3770-80 and 1.3740-50, some stops are placed below 1.3720, followed by fresh demand around 1.3690-00 and 1.3660-65.

Read more...

Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Sell at 0.8840

Dollar's intra-day breach of previous chart support at 0.8799 confirms our view that early decline has resumed and bearishness remains for further decline to 0.8788 (61.8% projection of 0.9082-0.8852 measuring from 0.8930) and then 0.8765-70 (1.236 times projection of 0.9157-0.8903 measuring from 0.9082) but reckon 0.8740-50 would limit downside due to near term oversold condition.

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3770

Current rally above 1.3773 resistance after the release of eurozone data signals recent upmove has resumed and further gain to 1.3825-30 (61.8% projection of 1.3477-1.3773 measuring from 1.3643) and then 1.3850 would bee seen, however, near term overbought condition would limit upside to 1.3870 and previous resistance at 1.3894 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later.