Thursday, February 27, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 2-28-14

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Daily Report: Renewed Selloff in Yen Crosses on Risk Aversion Much volatility was seen in the Japanese yen overnight as initial strength was countered by return of risk appetite. DOW and S&P 500 both closed higher and lifted yen crosses for recoveries. However, renewed risk aversion in Asian session triggered another selloff in yen crosses again. Technically, EUR/JPY has already took out 139.21 minor support yesterday. USD/JPY also took out 101.66 minor support today which added more evidence to yen strength. Focus will now also be on 169.11 minor support in GBP/JPY today and break will further affirm the bullish case in yen. Data released in Japan saw national CPI core unchanged at 1.3% yoy in January while Tokyo CPI core rose to 0.9% yoy in February. Household spending rose 1.2% yoy in January, unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, industrial production rose 4.0% mom, retail sales rose 4.4% yoy, housing starts rose 12.3% yoy. PMI manufacturing dropped slightly to 55.5 in February. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.74; (P) 102.09; (R1) 102.46; More... USD/JPY's decline extends today and took out 101.66 minor support. The development suggests that the corrective recovery from 100.75 has completed at 102.82 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside. The larger fall from 105.41 is resuming for 100.75 low and then 100.61 key support level. Decisive break there will have larger bearish implication and will target 61.8% projection of 105.41 to 100.75 from 102.82 at 99.94 next. On the upside, though, break of 102.82 will indicate that fall from 105.41 might have finished and will turn near term outlook bullish. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
21:45	NZD	Building Permits M/M Jan	-8.30%		7.60%	7.10%
23:13	JPY	Nomura/ JMMA Manufacturing PMI Feb	55.5		56.6
23:30	JPY	National CPI Core Y/Y Jan	1.30%	1.30%	1.30%
23:30	JPY	Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Feb	0.90%	0.80%	0.70%
23:30	JPY	Household Spending Y/Y Jan	1.10%	0.20%	0.70%
23:30	JPY	Unemployment Rate Jan	3.70%	3.70%	3.70%
23:50	JPY	Industrial Production M/M JanPreliminar	4.00%	3.10%	0.90%
23:50	JPY	Retail Trade Y/Y Jan	4.40%	3.90%	2.60%	2.50%
0:01	GBP	Gfk Consumer Confidence Feb	-7	-6	-7
5:00	JPY	Housing Starts Y/Y Jan	12.30%	15%	18%
7:00	EUR	German Retail Sales Y/Y Jan		1.20%	-2.50%
8:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicator Feb		2.03	1.98
10:00	EUR	CPI Y/Y Feb P		0.70%	0.70%
10:00	EUR	Unemployment Rate Jan		12.00%	12.00%
13:30	CAD	GDP M/M Dec		-0.20%	0.20%
13:30	USD	GDP Annualized Q4 P		2.70%	3.20%
13:30	USD	GDP Price Index Q4 P		1.30%	1.30%
14:45	USD	Chicago PMI Feb		58.2	59.6
14:55	USD	U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Feb F		81.4	81.2
15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales M/M Jan		2.90%	-8.70%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: Dollar dropped sharply earlier today on cross-buying in yen, bids at 102.00-10 and 101.80-85 together with stops below 101.80 were cleared, however, more buy orders are expected at 101.70 (stops below 101.60-65), mixture of bids and stops is located at 101.35-45, fresh demand should emerge around 101.20-25 and 101.00.On the upside, offers in good size are still noted at 102.40, 102.60-80 region and 103.00-20 area (from Asian sovereign names), selling interest is tipped further out at 103.40-50 (stops above).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8180

As the single currency has remained under pressure, retaining our view that near term downside risk remains for the retreat from 0.8286 to bring further weakness towards 0.8180-90, however, still reckon downside would be limited and support at 0.8158 (last week's low) should hold, bring another rebound later, above 0.8252-57 would bring test of resistance at 0.8286

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1020

As the greenback has staged a rebound after falling to 1.1054 earlier this week, consolidation would be seen but reckon 1.1150 would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for another corrective fall, below 1.1070-75 would bring retracement of recent rise to 1.1015-20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0910-1.1194), however, sharp fall below there should not be repeated and bring another rise later