Friday, February 7, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-7-14

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Spikes Lower after NFP, CAD Jumps on Employment Dollar weakens broadly after another piece of poor employment data. Non-farm payroll showed only 113k growth in January versus expectation of 175k. December's figure was revised upward from 74k to 75k, which made it nothing but a weak figure. Unemployment rate dropped to 6.6% in January, hitting a five year low. The participation rate also improved slightly from 63%, up from prior month's 62.8%. The unemployment rate is now very close to the 6.5% threshold level in Fed's forward guidance even though Fed's clear that it won't raise rates soon even if 6.5% is breached. While the greenback drops broadly as a knee jerk reaction, it quickly recovers some ground against European majors and there is no clear confirmation of a trend chance in Dollar-European pairs. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1040; (P) 1.1080; (R1) 1.1111; More... USD/CAD drops sharply in early US session and the strong break of 1.1031 minor support confirms short term topping at 1.1223, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, just ahead of 1.1235 long term fibo level. Intraday bias is now on the downside for pull back to 55 days EMA (now at 1.0833). On the upside,, break of 1.1122 minor resistance is needed to indicate completion of the pull back. Otherwise, outlook will stay mildly bearish. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
00:30	AUD	RBA Monetary Policy Statement
05:00	JPY	Leading Index Dec P	112.1	111.9	111.1
07:00	EUR	German Trade Balance (EUR) Dec	18.5B	17.3B	17.8B
08:00	CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves Jan	437.7B		435.2B
08:15	CHF	Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Dec	2.30%	3.90%	4.20%
09:30	GBP	Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Dec	-7.7B	-9.3B	-9.4B
09:30	GBP	Industrial Production M/M Dec	0.40%	0.60%	0.00%
09:30	GBP	Industrial Production Y/Y Dec	1.80%	2.30%	2.50%	2.10%
09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production M/M Dec	0.30%	0.60%	0.00%
09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production Y/Y Dec	1.50%	2.30%	2.80%	2.20%
11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production M/M Dec	-0.60%	0.50%	1.90%	2.40%
13:30	USD	Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jan	113K	175K	74K	75K
13:30	USD	Unemployment Rate Jan	6.60%	6.70%	6.70%
13:30	CAD	Net Change in Employment Jan	29.4K	17.5K	-45.9K
13:30	CAD	Unemployment Rate Jan	7.00%	7.10%	7.20%
15:00	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate Jan			0.70%

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency jumped in NY opening shortly after the release of lower-than-expected NFP data, however, offers in good size are still noted at 1.3645-50 and 1.3670-80, buy stops are building up above 1.3700. On the downside, bids in good size remain at 1.3550, 1.3535 and 1.3515, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3490-00 and 1.3475 with stops building up below 1.3450-60, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3420-30, 1.3400 and further out at 1.3350-60.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Sell again at 1001.90

Despite intra-day brief rise to 102.53, current sharp retreat suggest top is possibly formed and consolidation with downside bias is seen for another fall to the Ichimoku cloud (now at 101.29-36), however, a sustained breach below there is needed to signal the rebound from 100.76 has ended, bring weakness to 101.00-10, then retest of 100.76 but reckon downside would be limited to 100.29-34

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6430

As the British pound has rebounded again in New York opening, retaining our view that further consolidation above this week's low of 1.6252 would take place and near term upside risk remains for retracement to 1.6400, however, reckon 1.6430 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6607-1.6252) would limit upside and bring another decline later. Below the lower Kumo (now at 1.6294) would bring test of minor support at 1.6273, break there would bring another test of this week's low of 1.6252