Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day report 2-12-14

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Sterling Jumped as BoE Carney Laid Out Forward Guidance Phase Two Sterling surged today after BoE upgraded growth forecasts, issued new forward guidance, and hinted at rate hike at 2015. The BOE revised its forecast, revising higher the 4Q13 GDP growth to 0.9% from 0.7% projected previously. The pace of expansion would be similar in 1Q14 while growth forecast for full year 2014 is raised to 3.4% from November's estimate of 2.8%. The central bank indicated that it expects the economic recovery would be "more entrenched and more broadly based". On inflation, the BOE stated that "the existence of spare capacity in the economy is both wasteful and increases the risk that inflation will undershoot" the central bank's 2% target in the medium-term. The BOE forecasts inflation would ease to as low as 1.7% in 2Q15 before gradually accelerating to 1.9% in 2016. The country's unemployment rate has declined so rapidly over the past months that the BOE anticipates the unemployment rate would reach 7% in the quarter through January, and then the pace of the decline in the rate will ease. The central bank expects the medium-term equilibrium unemployment rate would reach 6-6.5%, compared with previous estimate of 6.5%. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6381; (P) 1.6403; (R1) 1.6425; More... GBP/USD's rebound from 1.6251 accelerates further to as high as 1.6557 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally would extend to retest 1.6667 resistance next. Considering bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, we'd actually favour more consolidation below 1.6667. Thus, we'd be cautious on strong resistance from there to bring another decline to extend range trading. Below 1.6425 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.6251 support. However, sustained break of 1.6667 will confirm up trend resumption and target 1.7043 key resistance next. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
23:30	AUD	Westpac Consumer Confidence Feb	-3.00%		-1.70%
23:50	JPY	Tertiary Industry Index M/M Dec	-0.40%	-0.30%	0.60%	0.80%
23:50	JPY	Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jan	4.40%	4.20%	4.20%	4.30%
23:50	JPY	Machine Orders M/M Dec	-15.70%	-3.80%	9.30%
6:00	JPY	Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Jan P	39.60%		28.10%
8:15	CHF	CPI M/M Jan	-0.30%	-0.30%	-0.20%
8:15	CHF	CPI Y/Y Jan	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
10:00	EUR	Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec	-0.70%	-0.30%	1.80%
10:30	GBP	BoE Inflation Report
15:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories			0.4M
19:00	USD	Monthly Budget Statement Jan		-28.2B	53.2B

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound jumped in London morning on hawkish quarterly inflation report, offers at 1.6475-85, 1.6500-10 and 1.6525 together with stops above 1.6550 were tripped, however, more sell orders are expected at 1.6575 and 1.6590-00. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.6500-10, 1.6470 and in good size at 1.6420-25 (option related), more buy orders are located at 1.6390-00, 1.6375 and 1.6340-60 area.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6430

Although the British pound has surged again after intra-day pullback to 1.6426 and near term upside bias remains for the rise from 1.6252 to extend further gain to 1.6555-60 (61.8% projection of 1.6273-1.6488 measuring from 1.6426), however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond previous resistance at 1.6591 and price should falter below resistance at 1.6625, bring retreat later.

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3620

Current selloff after comments from ECB's Coeure signals top has been formed at 1.3683 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for test of 1.3552, break there would signal the rise from 1.3477 has ended and bring further weakness to 1.3515-20 later, however, price should stay well above support area at 1.3477-83, bring another rebound later .