Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-16-14

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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Sterling Soars as Unemployment Dropped to 6.9% in February Sterling jumped sharply today after release of much better than expected job data. Unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.9% in February versus consensus of being unchanged at 7.2%. That's the lowest number in five years since February 2009 and was also below BoE's threshold of 7%. Claimant count dropped slightly more than consensus of -30.4k in March. Total employment hit a record high of 30.4m or 72.6% of workforce. The data won't trigger any actions from BoE as it has already modified its forward guidance to look at a broader range of market indicators. Nonetheless, Sterling responded positively to the data and is back above 1.68 against dollar. GBP/USD could be heading for a test on 1.6822 near term resistance next. Also released from Europe, Eurozone CPI was finalized at 0.5% yoy in March while core CPI dropped to 0.7% yoy. Swiss ZEW expectations dropped sharply to 7 in April. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6673; (P) 1.6711; (R1) 1.6764; More... GBP/USD's strong rebound suggests that pull back from 1.6819 has completed at 1.6654 and intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 1.6822 resistance. Break will confirm resumption of whole rise from 1.4813 and should target 1.7043 key resistance level next. Nonetheless, below 1.6712 minor support will mix up the outlook again and turn bias neutral. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
22:45	NZD	CPI Q/Q Q1	0.30%	0.50%	0.10%
00:30	AUD	Westpac Leading Index M/M Mar	0.00%		-0.10%
02:00	CNY	GDP YTD Y/Y Q1	7.40%	7.30%	7.70%
02:00	CNY	Industrial Production YTD Y/Y Mar	8.80%	8.80%	8.60%
02:00	CNY	Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Mar	17.60%	18.00%	17.90%
02:00	CNY	Retail Sales YTD Y/Y Mar	12.20%	11.90%	11.80%
04:30	JPY	Industrial Production M/M Feb F	-2.30%	-2.30%	-2.30%
08:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change Mar	-30.4K	-30.2K	-34.6K	-37.0K
08:30	GBP	ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Feb	6.90%	7.20%	7.20%
09:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI Y/Y Mar F	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
09:00	EUR	Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Mar F	0.70%	0.80%	0.80%
09:00	CHF	ZEW Survey (Expectations) Apr	7		19
12:30	CAD	International Securities Transactions (CAD) Feb	6.08B	4.57B	1.09B	1.22B
12:30	USD	Housing Starts Mar	946K	968K	907K
12:30	USD	Building Permits Mar	990K	995K	1018K	1014k
13:15	USD	Industrial Production Mar	0.70%	0.50%	0.60%
13:15	USD	Capacity Utilization Mar	79.20%	78.80%	78.80%
14:00	CAD	BoC Rate Decision	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%
14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories			4.0M

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound rallied in London, offers at 1.6785-00 area were filled but sell orders in good size are still noted at 1.6820-25 (stops above 1.6830), 1.6840-50 and 1.6875, mixture of offers and stops is tipped at 1.6900. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.6760-70, 1.6715-25 and 1.6700, indicated decent demand remains at 1.6685-90 and 1.6640-60 area with bigger stops placed below 1.6640 and 1.6625.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Hold long entered at 101.65

Although the greenback retreated yesterday to 101.50, dollar found renewed buying interest there and has staged a strong rebound, retaining our bullishness and upside bias remains for the rebound from last week's low of 101.33 to bring a stronger bounce to 102.40 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 104.13-101.33), a breach above there would confirm low formation and bring further gain to 102.70-75

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.3770

Despite intra-day rebound to 1.3851, as the single currency has retreated after meeting resistance around the upper Kumo, retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and near term downside risk remains for the fall from 1.3906 to extend weakness to 1.3780 (previous support) but reckon 1.3762-65 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3673-1.3906) would contain downside and bring another rally.