Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-26-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Consolidation Continues as Central Bank Speaks Provided No Inspiration

Markets remains rather quiet today in spite of some central bank speaks. Major forex pairs and crosses are stuck in tight range without any direction. In UK, BoE chief economist Dale noted that the central bank is "not planning to raise interest rates any time soon". And noted that when it starts to hike rates, the rise will be very gradual and cautious to "nurture the recovery we have seen in output growth and employment." Policymaker Broadbent said that the sterling strength is a "reflection of the fact that the rest of the world, Europe in particular, hasn't grown much". Meanwhile, he also said that UK growth can only be sustained if improvement broadens. Data from UK saw Q4 GDP growth revised lower at 0.7% qoq, index of services rose 3m/3m in 0.8% in December.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8850; (P) 0.8870; (R1) 0.8888; More...

USD/CHF recovers mildly today as consolidation from 0.8852 temporary low continues. Intraday bias remains neutral for some more sideway trading. Deeper decline is expected with 0.8938 minor resistance intact. But considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, we'd expect strong support above 0.8799 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.8938 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.9081 resistance.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
7:00 EUR German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey Mar 8.5 8.2 8.2 8.3
7:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Jan 1.44 1.81 1.8
9:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.70% 0.70% 0.80%
9:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Dec 0.80% 0.80% 0.90%
15:00 USD New Home Sales M/M Jan 406K 414K
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.0M
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Y/Y Jan 230M 523M
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped and intra-day decline gathered momentum, bids at 1.3730 and 1.3700-15 were filled, mixture of bids and stops at 1.3680-85 is now in focus, more buy orders are located at 1.3650-60 and 1.3630, buying interest is tipped at 1.3600-10. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3720-30 and in good size from 1.3760 up to 1.3780 (stops above) and from 1.3800 (barrier) up to 1.3820 (stops above), selling interest is expected further out at 1.3840-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3810

As the single currency is expected to stay within recent established range below last week's high of 1.3773 and although initial upside risk remains for  recent upmove from 1.3477 low to resume after consolidation and above resistance at 1.3773 would extend gain to 1.3790-95

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 101.90

The greenback is expected to remain confined within recent established broad range and although marginal weakness below 102.00 cannot be ruled out, as outlook remains consolidative, downside should be limited to 101.90 and support at 101.67 should remain intact, bring another rebound later. A break of resistance at 102.83 (this week's high) would extend further gain to previous resistance at 102.93

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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