Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 2-12-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Risk Markets Voted Yes to Yellen

Financial markets had clearly given Yellen a vote of confidence overnight after her first testimony to Congress as Fed chair. DOW closed 192.98 pts, or 1.22% higher at 15994.77 after breaching 16000 handle. S&P 500 also rose 19.91 pts, or 1.11% to close at 1819.75. Long term yields extended recent consolidations with 10 year and 30 year yields closing mildly higher. Dollar index was steady at around 80.50 level and hovers around the 55 days EMA. Positive risk sentiments were given another lift by China trade data in Asia, with major equity indices extending gains. At the time of writing, Japanese Nikkei is trading up 100 pts, or 0.7% while Hong Kong HSI is trading up 240 pts, or 1.1%.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8969; (P) 0.9008; (R1) 0.9076; More...

AUD/USD's rebound from 0.8659 is still in progress and reaches as high as 0.9062 so far today. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 0.9085 resistance. Decisive break there will be an early sign of larger trend reversal on bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. That is, the whole correction pattern from 1.1079 might have finished. And in such case, stronger rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.8659 at 0.9583 next. Nonetheless, we'll stay cautious before confirmed break of 0.9085 resistance. Below 0.8906 minor support will dampen the bullish case and turn bias neutral first.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Feb -3.00% -1.70%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Dec -0.40% -0.30% 0.60% 0.80%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jan 4.40% 4.20% 4.20% 4.30%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Dec -15.70% -3.80% 9.30%
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Jan P 28.10%
8:15 CHF CPI M/M Jan -0.30% -0.20%
8:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Jan 0.10% 0.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec -0.30% 1.80%
10:30 GBP BoE Inflation Report
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.4M
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Jan -28.2B 53.2B
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency maintained a firm undertone and offers at 1.3680 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.3685-1.3700, buy stops are building up above 1.3700, fresh selling interest should emerge around 1.3720-30, 1.3740-50 (stops above) and 1.3785-00. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3650, 1.3635 and 1.3615, more buy orders are located at 1.3600, 1.3580 and 1.3550-60, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3535, 1.3515, 1.3490-00.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8240

Despite intra-day rebound to 0.8337, as the single currency has retreated after faltering below resistance at 0.8350 (last week's high), retaining our view that further consolidation would be seen and pullback to 0.8265-70 cannot be ruled out, however, if our view that a temporary low possibly formed at 0.8168 is correct, downside should be limited to 0.8240-50 and bring another rise later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.1120

Despite rebounding from 1.0968, if our view that a temporary top is possibly formed at 1.1224 is correct, reckon upside would be limited to 1.1120-30 and bring another decline, below said support would extend the fall from 1.1224 top for a retracement of recent upmove to support at 1.0950-55 but a drop below there is needed to signal the wave v has ended there, bring correction of entire rise to 1.0900-05

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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