Thursday, February 13, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-13-14

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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Sold off after Weak Data, BoE Dale Boosted Sterling Dollar weakens sharply versus European majors today and free selling is seen after release of a batch of US economic data. Retail sales dropped -0.4% in January versus consensus of 0.0%. Ex-auto sales was flat versus consensus of 0.2% growth. Both were below market expectation. Initial jobless claims also came in larger than expectation at 339k in the week ended February 8, comparing to consensus of 330k. Also released in US session, Canada new housing price index rose 0.1% mom in December. Dollar breaches near term support against both Euro and sterling. Deeper selling is also seen in USD/JPY which may bring it back to 100.75 low. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6480; (P) 1.6540; (R1) 1.6654; More... GBP/USD surges to as high as 1.6672 so far today and breaches 1.6667 resistance. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Sustained trading above 1.6667 resistance will confirm resumption of whole rally from 1.4813. GBP/USD should then target 1.6746 resistance first and break will target 1.7043 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.6557 minor support will turn bias back to the downside and would possibly extend the corrective pattern from 1.6667 with another fall. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
21:30	NZD	Business NZ Manufacturing Jan	56.2		56.4
23:50	JPY	Domestic CGPI Y/Y Jan	2.40%	2.40%	2.50%
00:00	AUD	Consumer Inflation Expectation Feb	2.30%		2.30%
00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance Jan	53%	57%	56%
00:30	AUD	Employment Change Jan	-3.7K	15.0K	-22.6K	-23.0K
00:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate Jan	6.00%	5.90%	5.80%
07:00	EUR	German CPI M/M Jan F	-0.60%	-0.60%	-0.60%
07:00	EUR	German CPI Y/Y Jan F	1.30%	1.30%	1.30%
08:15	CHF	Producer & Import Prices M/M Jan	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
08:15	CHF	Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jan	-0.30%	-0.30%	-0.40%
09:00	EUR	ECB Monthly Bulletin
13:30	CAD	New Housing Price Index M/M Dec	0.10%	0.10%	0.00%
13:30	USD	Advance Retail Sales Jan	-0.40%	0.00%	0.20%	-0.10%
13:30	USD	Retail Sales Less Autos Jan	0.00%	0.20%	0.70%	0.30%
13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 8)	339K	330K	331K
15:00	USD	Business Inventories Dec		0.40%	0.40%
15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage			-262B
15:30	USD	Fed's Yellen Testifies to Senate

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound continued to edge higher and offers at 1.6670 were filled and stops above 1.6680 are now in focus, however, more sell orders are expected at 1.6700-10, mixture of offers and stops is tipped at 1.6740-50. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.6620-30 and 1.6590-00, more buy orders are reported at 1.6570 and 1.6550, buying interest is located at 1.6500-20 area (some stops below 1.6480-85), fresh demand should emerge around 1.6450-60.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6550

The British pound has continued to move higher after breaking indicated resistance at 1.6625, adding credence to our bullish view that correction from 1.6669 has ended and upmove should resume for a retest of this level, break there would signal early upmove has resumed and extend further headway towards 1.6700 later.

Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 101.55

Dollar's retreat after marginal rise to 102.70 earlier this week suggests a temporary top is formed and correction to 101.73-77 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 100.76-102.70 and previous resistance) is likely, however, reckon support at 101.45 would hold and bring another rise later. A break of the upper Kumo (now at 102.49) would bring a retest of said resistance at 102.70, above there would extend the rise from 100.76 low for further gain to previous resistance at 102.93