Thursday, February 20, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-20-14

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Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Maintains Gain after Lackluster Data The greenback is generally higher in early US session even though economic data provide little inspiration. Headline CPI accelerated to 1.6% yoy in January, up from 1.5% yoy in December. Core CPI, however, moderated to 1.6% yoy. Initial jobless claims was a touch higher than expectation at 336k in the week ended February 15. The dollar index is back at 80.3 at the time writing after having some attempts to break through 80 handle earlier this week. Technically, EUR/USD breaches 1.3691 minor support today which suggests that deeper retreat is underway for 1.365 level. We'd possibly see dollar recovery further before the week closes. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3714; (P) 1.3743 (R1) 1.3762; More.... A temporary top is in place at 1.3772 and intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral for the moment. Overall, outlook is unchanged. Pull back from 1.3892 has completed at 1.3476 already. Another rise is in favor and above 1.3772 will extend the rise from 1.3476 to retest 1.3892 high. Nonetheless, break of 1.3561 minor support will likely extend the correction from 1.3892 through 1.3476 support. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Economic Indicators Update

GMT	Ccy	Events	Actual	Consensus	Previous	Revised
21:45	NZD	PPI - Inputs Q/Q Q4	-0.70%	0.90%	2.20%
21:45	NZD	PPI - Outputs Q/Q Q4	-0.40%	1.40%	2.40%
23:50	JPY	Trade Balance (JPY) Jan	-1.82T	-1.56T	-1.15T	-1.26T
01:45	CNY	HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Feb	48.3	49.4	49.5
07:00	CHF	Trade Balance (CHF) Jan	2.59B	1.47B	0.50B	0.52B
07:00	EUR	German PPI M/M Jan	-0.10%	0.20%	0.10%
07:00	EUR	German PPI Y/Y Jan	-1.10%	-0.80%	-0.50%
08:00	EUR	French PMI Manufacturing Feb P	48.5	49.8	49.3
08:00	EUR	French PMI Services Feb P	46.9	49.2	48.9
08:30	EUR	German PMI Manufacturing Feb A	54.7	56.5	54.3	56.5
08:30	EUR	German PMI Services Feb A	55.4	53.5	53.1
09:00	EUR	Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Feb A	53	54.3	54
09:00	EUR	Eurozone PMI Services Feb A	51.7	51.9	51.6
09:00	EUR	Eurozone PMI Composite Feb A	52.7	53.2	52.9
11:00	GBP	CBI Trends Total Orders Feb	3	6	-2
13:30	USD	CPI M/M Jan	0.10%	0.10%	0.30%
13:30	USD	CPI Y/Y Jan	1.60%	1.60%	1.50%
13:30	USD	CPI Core M/M Jan	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
13:30	USD	CPI Core Y/Y Jan	1.60%	1.60%	1.70%
13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 15)	336K	335K	339K
15:00	USD	Philly Fed Survey Feb	-6.30	10	9.4
15:00	USD	Leading Indicators Jan	0.30%	0.40%	0.10%
15:00	EUR	Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb A	-13	-11	-11.7
15:30	USD	Natural Gas Storage			-237B
16:00	USD	Crude Oil Inventories			3.267M

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered after intra-day fall to 1.3686 and offers at 1.3730 were filled but sell orders are still seen at 1.3740-50 and 1.3775-80, more offers are reported from 1.3800 up to 1.3820 (stops above) and further out at 1.3840-50. On the downside, bids and stops at 1.3690-00 were tripped but buy orders are still seen at 1.3670-80, more buying interest is tipped at 1.3650, 1.3630 and 1.3600-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.8890

As the greenback has staged a strong rebound after holding above yesterday's low of 0.8856, suggesting a temporary low is possibly formed and consolidation with upside bias remains for test of resistance at 0.8929, break there would add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent decline to 0.8940-47

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Stand aside

Current selloff signals a temporary top is possibly formed at 1.3773 and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for test of 1.3660-65 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3477-1.3773), below there would confirm, bring further weakness towards 1.3625 (50% Fibonacci retracement), however, reckon 1.3590-00 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would hold