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Daily Report: Aussie Dives after Poor Employment Data, Yellen to Testify AgainAustralian dollar reverses and drops sharply today as hit by poor employment data. The employment market unexpectedly contracted by -3.7k in January versus expectation of 15k growth. That's the second consecutive months of contraction with December figure revised down to -23k. Unemployment rate rose to 6.0%, up from 5.8%, versus consensus of 5.9%. That's the highest level since 2003. The data indicates that the underlying economy in Australian remains rather weak despite last week's sharp depreciation in the Aussie. Nonetheless, it should be noted that RBA has clearly stated its intention to keep rates unchanged for a period of time in the February statement. Thus in spite of today's fall, downside in Aussie could be limited in near term. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8969; (P) 0.9008; (R1) 0.9076; More... AUD/USD's sharp decline today indicates that a temporary top is at least formed at 0.9066. The failure below 0.9085 dampened the bullish reversal case. Intraday bias is turned neutral first. As long as 0.8906 cluster support holds (38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9066), further rally is still mildly in favor in AUD/USD. Decisive break of 0.9085 resistance will be an early sign of larger trend reversal. That is the whole correction pattern from 1.1079 might have finished at 0.8659 and further rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.8659 at 0.9583 next. However, break of 0.8906 will argue that rebound from 0.8659 has completed and will turn bias back to the downside for retesting this low. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound jumped in London morning on hawkish quarterly inflation report, offers at 1.6475-85, 1.6500-10 and 1.6525 together with stops above 1.6550 were tripped, however, more sell orders are expected at 1.6575 and 1.6590-00. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.6500-10, 1.6470 and in good size at 1.6420-25 (option related), more buy orders are located at 1.6390-00, 1.6375 and 1.6340-60 area. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Sell at 1.1120Although the greenback has retreated after meeting resistance at 1.1089, break of support at 1.0968 is needed to signal fall from 1.1224 top is still in progress for retracement of recent upmove to support at 1.0950-55 but only a drop below there would add credence to our view that the wave v has ended at 1.1224, bring correction of entire rise to 1.0900-05, however, reckon support at 1.0843 would hold from here. Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Hold short entered at 1.3630Despite yesterday's fall to 1.3562, as the single currency has staged a strong rebound after holding above previous support at 1.3552, deferring our bearishness and marginal gain from here cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the upper Kumo (now at 1.3652) would limit upside and bring another decline, below said support area at 1.3552-62 would signal the rise from 1.3477 has ended at 1.3683 earlier this week Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
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