Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 2-26-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Markets Tread Water, Major Pairs Bounded in Tight Range

Financial markets are rather steady in Asian session today. Japanese Nikkei opened lower but quickly recovered back to above 15000 handle. Other major equity indices flip-flopped between gain and loss in tight range. Overnight, US equities also tread water with DOW ending -27.5 pts lower. S&P 500 faced some selling pressure from below record high and closed slightly lower by -2.5 pts. In the currency markets, all major pairs and crosses are still stuck in prior week's range without any direction. GBP/USD had a rally attempt yesterday but struggled to take out 1.6725 minor resistance. EUR/USD is bounded in tight range below 1.3772 temporary top. USD/JPY is hovering around a flat 4 hours 55 EMA in choppy sideway trading.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.95; (P) 102.28; (R1) 102.57; More...

USD/JPY is still engage in the choppy corrective pattern that started in 100.75. Intraday bias remains neutral first. As long as 103.44 resistance holds, we'd expect fall from 105.41 to resume sooner or later. Below 101.66 minor support will turn bias to the downside for 100.61/75 support zone first. Decisive break of 100.61 will confirm medium term topping at 105.41 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and bring deeper decline towards 96.56 support. However, decisive break of 103.44 will indicate that USD/JPY has successfully defended 100.61 key support already. Stronger rally should then be seen back to retest 105.41.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
07:00 EUR German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey Mar 8.2 8.2
07:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Jan 1.81
09:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.70% 0.80%
09:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Dec 0.80% 0.80%
15:00 USD New Home Sales M/M Jan 406K 414K
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.0M
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Y/Y Jan 230M 523M
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency edged higher and offers at 1.3760 were filled but sell orders are still seen at 1.3770-80 (stops above) and from 1.3800 (barrier) up to 1.3820 (stops above), selling interest is expected further out at 1.3840-50. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3730, 1.3700-10 and 1.3685 (stops below 1.3680), more buy orders are located at 1.3650-60 and 1.3630, buying interest is tipped at 1.3600-10.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.8200

As the single currency has retreated after rising to 0.8286 yesterday, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and weakness to 0.8215 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 0.8195-00 and bring another rebound later, above said resistance at 0.8286 would add credence to our view that low is possibly formed at 0.8158 last week and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement of recent decline to resistance at 0.8300 and possibly 0.8325-30

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1020

Yesterday's decline has retained our view that near term downside risk remains for the retreat from 1.1194 to bring retracement of the rise from 1.0910 and weakness to 1.1015-20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0910-1.1194) cannot be ruled out, however, sharp fall below there should not be repeated and bring another rise later, above 1.1140-45 would bring another tet of 1.1194, then towards recent high of 1.1224.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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