Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 2-27-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Broadly Lower as Traders Starting to Position for Next Week's ECB

Euro weakened broadly overnight on no apparent reason. Some attributed the selloff in EUR/USD to the solid US housing data. But it should be noted that dollar was not broad based. And, the decline in EUR/USD indeed happened before the data release. Broad based weakness was indeed seen in Euro, except against Aussie. Thus, US data shouldn't be much of a factor. Instead, we believe that traders are starting to position themselves ahead of next week's ECB meeting as there have been continuous speculation that the central bank would eventually act to boost inflation, which stands far below the 2% target. ECB Draghi has already noted that the latest projections to be released next week would provide 'a very significant change' in the central bank's analysis. In our special report Euro's Recent Strength Unsustainable, it was also argued that Euro's recent strength was mainly due to temporary factors due to yield and capital flow. But the trend could turn as those short-term catalysts dissipate.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8194; (P) 0.8222; (R1) 0.8237; More....

EUR/GBP's recovery was limited at 0.8286, below the falling 55 days EMA and dropped sharply over night. The development suggests that such recover was finished and intraday bias is turned to the downside. Focus is back on 0.8164 key support level. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, and the falling wedge look of the decline from 0.8768, we'd still expect strong support from 0.8164 to bring reversal. And, above 0.8286 will turn bias back to the upside for 0.8349 resistance. However, again, decisive break of 0.8164 will have larger bearish implication and would pave the way to 0.8 psychological level.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Y/Y Jan 306M 230M 523M 493M
6:45 CHF GDP Q/Q Q4 0.40% 0.50%
7:00 EUR German Import Price Index M/M Jan -0.10% 0.00%
8:15 CHF Employment Level Q4 4.191M 4.196M
8:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Feb 6.80% 6.80%
8:55 EUR Unemployment Change Feb -13K -28K
9:00 EUR M3 Money Supply Y/Y Jan 1.10% 1.00%
10:00 EUR Consumer Confidence Feb -11.7 -11.7
10:00 EUR Economic Confidence Feb 101 100.9
10:00 EUR Industrial Confidence Feb -4 -3.9
10:00 EUR Services Sentiment Feb 2.3 2.3
13:00 EUR German CPI M/M Feb P 0.60% -0.60%
13:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Feb P 1.30% 1.30%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Jan -0.50% -4.30%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Jan 0.20% -1.60%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 21) 333K 336K
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -250B
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped and intra-day decline gathered momentum, bids at 1.3730 and 1.3700-15 were filled, mixture of bids and stops at 1.3680-85 is now in focus, more buy orders are located at 1.3650-60 and 1.3630, buying interest is tipped at 1.3600-10. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3720-30 and in good size from 1.3760 up to 1.3780 (stops above) and from 1.3800 (barrier) up to 1.3820 (stops above), selling interest is expected further out at 1.3840-50.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1020

Although the greenback has recovered after finding support at 1.1054, reckon 1.1125-30 would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for the the retreat from 1.1194 to bring retracement of the rise from 1.0910 and weakness to 1.1015-20 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0910-1.1194) cannot be ruled out, however, sharp fall below there should not be repeated and bring another rise later

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3710

Current breach of indicated support at 1.3686 suggests a temporary top is formed earlier at 1.3773 and consolidation with downside bias is seen for retracement of recent upmove to bring weakness to 1.3660 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3477-1.3773), break there would add credence to this view and extend weakness to 1.3625 (50% Fibonacci retracement), then towards 1.3590

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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