Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-19-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Surges on Housing Data, Sterling Weak on CPI

Dollar rises broadly in early US session and finally break out from recent range against Euro. Solid housing data is giving the greenback a boost. Housing starts rose 15.7% to 1.09m annualized rate in July versus expectation of 0.97m. That's the highest level in eight months. Building permits also rose to 1.05m versus expectation of 1.00m. Released yesterday, the NAHB housing market index rose to 55, highest in seven months. Also released from US, CPI slowed to 2.0% yoy in July while core CPI was unchanged at 1.9% yoy. Both were inline with expectations.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9036; (P) 0.9052; (R1) 0.9081; More....

USD/CHF recovered after hitting 0.9022 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. No change in the near term outlook as price actions from 0.9114 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen at near term channel (now at 0.8992) to contain downside and bring rise resumption. Above 0.9114 will target 0.9156 key resistance next. However, sustained break of the channel support will indicate reversal and target 0.8855 and below.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q2 -1.00% 0.70% 1.00%
22:45 NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q2 -0.50% 0.80% 0.90%
01:30 AUD RBA Minutes
03:00 NZD RBNZ 2-Year Inflation Expectation Q3 2.20% 2.36%
08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jun 13.1B 21.3B 19.5B 19.8B
08:30 GBP CPI M/M Jul -0.30% -0.20% 0.20%
08:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Jul 1.60% 1.80% 1.90%
08:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Jul 1.80% 1.90% 2.00%
08:30 GBP RPI M/M Jul -0.10% -0.10% 0.20%
08:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Jul 2.50% 2.60% 2.60%
08:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Jul -1.60% -1.00% -0.80%
08:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Jul -7.30% -6.40% -4.40% -4.50%
08:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Jul -0.10% 0.10% -0.20% -0.10%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Jul -0.10% 0.00% 0.20% 0.30%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Jul 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.20%
08:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Jul 0.90% 0.90% 1.00%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Jul 0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Jul 2.00% 2.00% 2.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Jul 0.10% 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Jul 1.90% 1.90% 1.90%
12:30 USD Building Permits Jul 1.05M 1.00M 0.97M 0.96M
12:30 USD Housing Starts Jul 1.09M 0.97M 0.89M 0.95M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped to fresh 2014 low in NY morning after US data, bids at 1.3335-45 together with stops below barrier at 1.3325 were tripped, some defensive bids remain at 1.3300-10 with more stops placed below another barrier at figure, fresh demand is tipped at 1.3285, 1.3265 and 1.3250. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.3350-55, 1.3370 and 1.3385, more sell orders are noted at 1.3400-10, 1.3425-30 and 1.3445-50, selling interest is seen from 1.3460 all the way up to 1.3500 and further out at 1.3520-30.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9065

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after staging a strong rebound from last week's low of 0.9024, suggesting low has possibly been formed there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain towards indicated strong resistance 0.9104-05, however, break there is needed to confirm upmove has resumed for retest of 0.9115, above this recent high would extend early rise from 0.8699 low for headway to previous resistance at 0.9157

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3350

Current break of indicated previous support at 1.3333 signals recent decline has resumed and may extend weakness to 1.3300-06 (61.8% projection of 1.3549-1.3333 measuring from 1.3433 and 1.618 times projection of 1.3549-1.3438 measuring from 1.3485) and possibly 1.3265-70 (61.8% projection of 1.3651-1.3367 measuring from 1.3445), however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.3225-30

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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