Friday, August 8, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-8-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Recovered as Russia Seeks Tension De-Escalation

European indices opened sharply lower today on risk aversion after US President Obama authorized air strikes in Iraq if they move towards the Kurdish city of Erbil. Nonetheless, sentiments quickly reversed on news that Russia is trying to de-escalate the Ukraine tensions, just a day after president Putin declared he'd hit back on sanctions against his country. European indices pared back the losses and is trading flat at the time of writing. US futures also reversed and is pointing to a mildly higher open. Nonetheless, investors would likely stay cautious ahead of the weekend considering all of the geopolitical risks in Ukraine, Iraq as well as Israel. In the currency markets, the Japanese yen pared back some of the gains into US session but stays the strongest currency this week.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6815; (P) 1.6839; (R1) 1.6856; More...

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the downside for the moment as the decline from 1.7190 continues for 1.6692 key support level. Current developments indicated medium term topping at 1.7190 and the trend is possibly reversing. Decisive break of 1.6692 should confirm this bearish case. On the upside, above 1.6888 will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidation before staging another decline.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Jun 0.13T 0.11T 0.38T
23:50 JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts Y/Y Jul 2.20% 2.30%
01:30 AUD Home Loans Jun 0.20% 0.70% 0.00% -0.10%
02:00 CNY Trade Balance Jul $47.3B $31.56B
03:00 JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
05:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Jul 3.20% 3.20% 3.20%
06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Jun 16.2B 19.8B 17.8B 18.8B
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jun -9.4B -8.9B -9.2B
08:30 GBP Construction Output M/M Jun 1.20% 1.10% -1.10% -1.20%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Jul 0.2K 25.4K -9.4K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Jul 7.00% 7.00% 7.10%
12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q2 P 2.50% 1.40% -3.20%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q2 P 0.60% 1.30% 5.70%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.60% 0.50%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded with a firm undertone as dollar remains weak across the board, sell orders are still noted at 1.3410-25 area, mixture of offers and stops remains at 1.3445-50, more stops are placed above 1.3460, but sell orders are still seen at 1.3470-80, followed by combination of offers and stops at 1.3490-10 area, selling interest is tipped at 1.3520-30. On the downside, bids remain at 1.3340-60 region and 1.3325 (barrier with stops below), fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.3300-10 with stops placed below another barrier at figure, some buy orders are tipped at 1.3285, 1.3265 and 1.3250.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Hold short entered at 1.6855

The British pound met renewed selling interest at 1.6864 and has fallen again in line with our expectation, adding credence to our bearishness for recent decline from 1.7192 top to extend further weakness to 1.6770, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.6750 and reckon 1.6720-25 would hold, risk from there is seen for a rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Sell again at 102.20

Although the greenback has rebounded after intra-day fall to 101.51 and consolidation above this level is likely, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 102.21) would limit upside and bring another decline, below said support would add credence to our view that the rise from 100.82 has ended at 103.09 and downside bias remains for the fall from 103.09 to extend further weakness to 101.32, then towards key support at 101.07-09

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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