Monday, August 25, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-25-14

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Drops against Sterling and Yen as German Ifo Missed

Euro weakens sharply against Sterling and Yen today after weaker than expected confidence data. German Ifo business climate dropped to 106.3 in August versus expectation of 107.1, hitting a 13-month low. Current assessment gauge dropped to 111.1 versus expectation of 112.0. Expectations gauge dropped to 101.7 versus expectation of 102.1. Ifo president Hans-Werner Sinn noted that the German economy "continues to lose steam" and companies were "less satisfied with their current business situation." Ifo economists Klaus Wohlrabe said that the institute might lower Germany's growth forecast for 2014 to 1.5%, down sharply from current projection of 2.0%. And he noted that Q3 growth could be nearly flat.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6556; (P) 1.6576; (R1) 1.6593; More...

A temporary low is in place at 1.6534 with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line. Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral for some consolidations first. Upside of recovery is expected to be limited by 1.6737 resistance and bring fall resumption. The decline from 1.7190 medium term top is expected to extend lower. Below 1.6534 will target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282).

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
8:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Aug 106.3 107.1 108
8:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Aug 111.1 112 112.9
8:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Aug 101.7 102.1 103.4
14:00 USD New Home Sales Jul 412K 426K 406K 422K
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency remained under pressure in quiet European session, offers are reported at 1.3220-30 and also at 1.3250-60, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.3295-00, more sell orders are expected at 1.3320-30, 1.3350 and 1.3370. On the downside, some bids are seen at 1.3180 and above option barrier at 1.3150, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3120-30 and in good size at 1.3100 with some stops placed below 1.3090.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9110

The greenback opened higher today and outlook remains supportive for recent upmove to extend further gain towards 0.9200 and possibly 0.9225-30 (100% projection of 0.9024-0.9146 measuring from 0.9103), however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 0.9250 and reckon 0.9280 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.6510

Although cable has recovered after intra-day initial fall to 1.6537, reckon 1.6600 would limit upside and near term downside risk remains for recent decline to extend one more fall to 1.6520-25, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.6505-10 (1.236 times projection of 1.6845-1.6658 measuring from 1.6739) and bring rebound later. Above the upper Kumo (now at 1.6622) would bring correction to previous support at 1.6658

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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