Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-6-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Yen Jumps as Sentiments Down on Ukraine, Italy Recession

The Japanese yen is broadly higher today as markets are weighed by risk aversion. Escalation in the Ukraine crisis was a major factor driving global equities down. Furthermore, European stocks were pressured as Italy unexpectedly slipped back into recession. Economic data released from Germany and UK were also disappointing. US stocks futures point to lower open today and we'd likely see recent correction extends. Yen, and to a lesser extent dollar, would remain firm with some more upside prospects. Released in early US session, Canada trade showed CAD 1.9b surplus in June, US trade deficit narrowed to USD -41.5b in June.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3347; (P) 1.3386 (R1) 1.3413; More....

EUR/USD drops further to as low as 1.3332 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside. Current decline from 1.3993 is still in progress and should target 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.3209 next. On the upside, break of 1.3444 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q2 5.60% 5.80% 6.00% 5.90%
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q2 0.40% 0.70% 0.90%
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jul -1.90% -1.80%
05:00 JPY Leading Index Jun P 105.5 105.5 104.8
06:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Jun -3.20% 0.50% -1.70%
07:15 CHF CPI M/M Jul -0.40% -0.40% -0.10%
07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Jul 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
08:10 EUR Eurozone Retail PMI Jul 47.6 50
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jun 0.30% 0.60% -0.70% -0.60%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jun 1.20% 1.50% 2.30%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jun 0.30% 0.60% -1.30%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jun 1.90% 2.10% 3.70%
09:00 EUR Italian GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.20% 0.10% -0.10%
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Jun 1.9B -0.1B -0.15B
12:30 USD Trade Balance Jun -41.5B -44.2B -$44.4B
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Jul 0.90%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.7M
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped again in European session but once again recovered after finding buying interest just above 1.3330, more bids are reported at 1.3325 and at 1.3300-10 with stops building up below 1.3300. On the upside, offers are noted at 1.3375-80, 1.3395-00 and 1.3420-25, more sell orders are tipped at 1.3445-50 with stops placed above 1.3460 but selling interest is expected at 1.3470-80, followed by combination of offers and stops at 1.3490-10 area.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6855

Cable's retreat after faltering below resistance at 1.6888 (yesterday's high) suggests the rebound from 1.6812 has ended there and retest of this level is seen, break there would signal recent decline from 1.7192 top is still in progress and may extend weakness to 1.6800 and possibly towards 1.6770, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.6750, risk from there is seen for a rebound later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9070

As the greenback has risen again after brief retreat, suggesting the erratic rise from 0.8699 low is still in progress and may extend further gain towards resistance at 0.9157, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 0.9175-80 and reckon 0.9200 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for another retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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