Friday, August 15, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day report 8-15-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: CAD Rebounds Further on Corrected July Job Data

Canadian dollar extends this week's rebound as the Statistics Canada released corrected job market data for July, which lifted the sentiments towards the Lonnie. In July, 41.7k jobs were added to the economy. That was firstly, much better than the originally reported wrong number of 0.2k. Secondly, it was also much better than the market expectations of 25.4k. Unemployment rate was uncorrected at 7.0%, down from June's 7.1%. The mistake was due to the failure to run a program, which is part of the scheduled update to the survey. Hence, there were uncounted full-time workers. Also released from Canada, manufacturing shipments rose 0.6% mom in June.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6663; (P) 1.6679; (R1) 1.6702; More...

No change in GBP/USD's outlook. Intraday bias remains on the downside and sustained trading below 1.6692 key support will confirm larger reversal. And in that case, the fall from 1.7190 medium term top should target 1.6251 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.6282). On the upside, break of 1.6844 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
08:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Jun 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jun 0.60% 0.50% 1.60%
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Aug 14.7 20 25.6
12:30 USD PPI M/M Jul 0.10% 0.10% 0.40%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Jul 1.70% 1.80% 1.90%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Jul 0.20% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Jul 1.60% 1.60% 1.80%
13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Jun -18.7B 27.3B $19.4B 18.6B
13:15 USD Industrial Production Jul 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.40%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Jul 79.20% 79.20% 79.10%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Aug P 79.2 83 81.8
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has rebounded in part due to soft US data, bids remain at 1.3360, more buy orders are reported at 1.3340-50 and above 1.3325 barrier (stops below), defensive bids remain at 1.3300-10 with more stops placed below another barrier at figure, some buy orders are tipped at 1.3285, 1.3265 and 1.3250. On the upside, offers at 1.3390-00 were filled but sell orders are tipped at 1.3420-25, 1.3445-50 and 1.3460-70, selling interest should emerge further out at 1.3475-80, 1.3490-00 and 1.3520-30.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6750

As cable recovered after yesterday's brief fall to 1.6658, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.6725-30 cannot be ruled out, however, previous support at 1.6757 should limit upside and bring another decline, break of said support at 1.6658 would extend recent decline from 1.7192 top for further weakness to 1.6630 but oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.6600

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 102.05

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone, bullishness remains for the rise from 101.51 to extend gain towards 102.93 resistance, however, break there is needed to add credence to our view that early retreat from 103.09 has ended at 101.51 and bring retest of this level. Looking ahead, only a break there would signal the rise from 100.82 has resumed for headway to 103.40-50

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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