Friday, August 15, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 8-15-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Sentiments Improved on Easing Geopolitical Tensions

Risk sentiments improved further on easing geo political tensions. Asian equities are generally higher as US stocks extended this week's rebound overnight. Reactions in the Japan yen was muted though as treasuries yields dropped in spite of strength in equities. Russian President Putin pledged that his government would do what they can "so this conflict comes to end as soon as possible and the bloodshed in Ukraine comes to an end". In the Middle East, Israel and Hamas agreed to extend their ceasefire for a further 3 days. In Iraq, Nouri al-Maliki has agreed to step down as PM and back Haider al-Abadi to form a new government. These developments calmed investors although peace would merely last temporarily.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 170.65; (P) 170.93; (R1) 171.22; More.....

The consolidation from 170.69 temporary low is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral. We'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 172.60 resistance and bring fall resumption. Current development suggests medium term topping at 175.36. Below 170.69 will turn bias to the downside for 169.53 key support level to confirm this bearish case. However, above 172.60 resistance will suggest that the pull back from 175.36 has completed and will turn bias back to the upside.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.80% 0.80%
08:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Jun 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Jun 0.50% 1.60%
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Aug 20 25.6
12:30 USD PPI M/M Jul 0.10% 0.40%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Jul 1.80% 1.90%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Jul 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Jul 1.60% 1.80%
13:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Jun 27.3B $19.4B
13:15 USD Industrial Production Jul 0.30% 0.20%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Jul 79.20% 79.10%
13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Aug P 83 81.8
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency jumped again today in part due to the release of US data, offers at 1.3375 and 1.3390-00 were filled but sell orders are located at 1.3420-25, 1.3445-50 and 1.3460-70, selling interest should emerge further out at 1.3475-80, 1.3490-00 and 1.3520-30. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3370 and in good size at 1.3340-50, buy orders are still noted above 1.3325 barrier with stops placed below, fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.3300-10 with more stops seen below another barrier at figure, some buy orders are tipped at 1.3285, 1.3265 and 1.3250.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.7945

The single currency has maintained a firm undertone after yesterday's rally on sterling's broad-based weakness after dovish remarks from BOE's Carney, adding credence to our near term bullishness for the erratic rise from temporary low at 0.7874 (formed last month as wave v trough) to bring retracement of recent decline to 0.8050 but reckon 0.8080 would limit upside and price would falter below 0.8100

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0850

Although further consolidation below last week's high of 1.0986 would be seen and near term downside risk remains for correction of recent rise to bring marginal weakness, reckon 1.0850 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.0986 would signal recent rise from 1.0621 low (tentatively wave c trough) is still in progress for at least a retracement of recent decline towards 1.1000

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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