Thursday, August 21, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-21-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovers after Mixed PMI, Dollar Retreats Mildly

Euro recovers mildly today in spite of mixed PMI data. Eurozone PMI manufacturing dropped more than expected to 50.8 in August while PMI services dropped to 53.5. Both were below market consensus. French PMI manufacturing was weak and deteriorated to 46.5 . However, French services PMI unexpectedly improved to 51.1. German readings were positive with PMI manufacturing dropped less than expected to 52.0. German services PMI also dropped less than expected to 56.4. Markit senior economist Dobson said they didn't see "a recovery taking real hold as yet". Meanwhile, with strong rise in output and new orders, Germany could pull off a 0.7% expansion in Q3.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9102; (P) 0.9120; (R1) 0.9150; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 0.9156 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. In that case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.8702 to 0.9036 and 0.8855 at 0.9189 next. On the downside, break of 0.9022 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Jun 0.40% 0.20%
01:35 JPY Japan Manufacturing PMI Aug P 52.4 51.7 50.5
01:45 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI Aug P 50.3 51.5 51.7
06:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Jul 3.98B 1.91B 1.38B 1.41B
07:00 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Aug P 46.5 47.9 47.8
07:00 EUR France Services PMI Aug P 51.1 50.3 50.4
07:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Aug P 52 51.8 52.4
07:30 EUR Germany Services PMI Aug P 56.4 55.5 56.7
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug P 50.8 51.4 51.8
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Aug P 53.5 53.6 54.2
08:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Jul 0.10% 0.40% 0.10% 0.20%
08:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jul -1.1B -1.9B 9.5B 9.8B
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims Aug 16 298K 299K 311K 312K
14:00 USD Leading Indicators Jul 0.90% 0.60% 0.30%
14:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Aug 28 18 23.9
14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Jul 5.15M 5.01M 5.04M
14:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug A -10 -9 -8.4
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 78B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly after recovering from intra-day low of 1.3242, offers are still noted at 1.3280, 1.3300-10 (stops above) and 1.3325-30, more sell orders are tipped at 1.3350 and 1.3370, selling interest should emerge further out at 1.3385 and 1.3400-10. On the downside, some bids are seen at 1.3240-50, 1.3215-25 and 1.3200 with stops placed below barrier at figure, more buy orders are located at 1.3180 and 1.3150.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9080

Despite intra-day initial rise to 0.9146, as the greenback has retreated after faltering below indicated resistance at 0.9157, suggesting consolidation would be seen and pullback to the upper Kumo (now at 0.9091) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9067) would limit downside and bring another rise later. Above said resistance at 0.9157 would extsend early erratic rise from 0.8699 low for further gain towards 0.9190-00

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6650

As cable has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.6564, suggesting minor consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.6622) is likely, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.6650 and bring another decline later, break of said support would exxtend recent decline from 1.7192 top to 1.6540-50, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.6500-10

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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