Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-12-14

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Mid-Day Report: Euro Tumbled as German ZEW Nose-dived

Euro weakens broadly today after disappointment from German confidence data. The German ZEW economic sentiment deteriorated sharply from 27.1 to 8.6 in August, far below expectation of 18.2. That's also the lowest reading since December 2012. The current situation gauge also dropped sharply from 61.8 to 44.3, missing expectation of 55.5. ZEW said in the statement that "the decline in economic sentiment is likely connected to the ongoing geopolitical tensions that have affected the German economy by now." And, "the signs are that economic growth in Germany will be weaker in 2014 than expected." Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment also tumbled fro 48.1 to 23.7 versus consensus of 41.3.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3372; (P) 1.3392 (R1) 1.3403; More....

EUR/USD dips sharply today but stays above 1.3332 temporary low so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. With 1.3444 resistance intact, deeper fall would still be seen to 100% projection of 1.3993 to 1.3502 from 1.3700 at 1.3209. But in that case, strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. Meanwhile, above 1.3444 will confirm short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for 1.3502 support turned resistance.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Jul -0.30% -0.80%
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Jul 11 8
1:30 AUD House Price Index Q/Q Q2 1.80% 1.10% 1.70% 1.50%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun F -3.40% 0.50% -3.30%
9:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Aug 8.6 18.2 27.1
9:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Aug 44.3 55.5 61.8
9:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Aug 23.7 41.3 48.1
18:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Jul -98.2B 70.5B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency tumbled on soft ZEW data, bids at 1.3340-50 were filled, however, defensive buy orders are reported above 1.3325 barrier (with stops below), fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.3300-10 with stops placed below another barrier at figure, some buy orders are tipped at 1.3285, 1.3265 and 1.3250. On the upside, offers remain at 1.3390-00, 1.3420-25 and 1.3445-50, more sell orders are still seen at 1.3460-70 and 1.3475-80, followed by combination of offers and stops at 1.3490-00 and 1.3520-30.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.7945

Failure to extend last week's rally and current retreat dampened our bullishness and support at 0.7924 needs to hold to retain prospect of another rise, above resistance at 0.7998 would add credence to our view that a temporary low has been formed at 0.7874 (as wave v trough) last month and the erratic rise from 0.7874 should bring retracement of recent decline to resistance at 0.8034 (previous 4th of a lesser degree) and possibly towards 0.8050

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0850

As the greenback has retreated after faltering below last week's high of 1.0986, suggesting minor consolidation below this resistance would be seen and another pullback to 1.0904 support cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.0850 would limit downside and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.0986 would signal recent rise from 1.0621 low (tentatively wave c trough) is still in progress for at least a retracement of recent decline towards 1.1000

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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