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Monday, August 4, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 8-4-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Markets Stabilized as Portugal Bailout Banco Espirito Santo

Markets stabilized in Asia today as Portugal announced EUR 4.9b bailout of Banco Espirito Santo SA. The Bank of Portugal's Resolution Fund will transfer the assets of Banco Espirito Santo to a new company called Novo Banco and the treasury loan will eventually be repaid by sale of the new company. The bad assets would be left with the shareholders and junior bond holders of Banco Espirito Santo. The Finance Ministry emphasized in the statement that it's not the "taxpayers" who would "shoulder the losses". The Japanese yen is mildly lower in Asian session today as stocks rebounded on the news. Meanwhile, European majors are staying in tight range.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 137.51; (P) 137.76; (R1) 137.96; More...

With 137.24 minor support intact, further rise is still expected in EUR/JPY. A short term bottom was formed at 136.36 a rebound from there should target 139.27 resistance first. Break will confirm completion of the choppy fall from 143.78 and will turn near term outlook bullish. On the downside, below 137.24 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 135.50 key support level.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Jul 42.70% 41.20% 42.60%
1:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.60% 0.30% -0.50%
7:30 CHF SVME PMI Jul 56.2 54
8:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Aug 9.1 10.1
8:30 GBP Construction PMI Jul 62.1 62.6
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jun 0.00% -0.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jun -1.00% -1.00%
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency jumped in NY morning on weaker-than-expected IS job data (both NFP and unemployment rate), offers at 1.3400 and 1.3420-30 were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.3440-50 (stops above) and further out at 1.3470-80, followed by mixture of offers and stops at 1.3490-00, selling interest is tipped at 1.3520-30. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3385-90 and in good size at 1.3365-75, followed by mixture of bids and stops at 1.3350 barrier, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3325 and further out at 1.3300-10 with stops placed below another barrier at figure.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7945

Current rebound suggests a temporary low has been formed at 0.7874 last week and consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of previous resistance at 0.7980-85 but a sustained breach above there is needed to add credence to this view, bring correction to 0.8000, a sustained breach above there would signal wave v has possibly ended and bring test of resistance at 0.8034 (previous 4th of a lesser degree) but 0.8050 is likely to hold on first testing.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.0835

Despite intra-day brief rise to 1.0944, lack of follow through buying on break of yesterday's high of 1.0930 and current retreat suggest minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to 1.0850 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.0820-25 would limit downside and bring another rise later, break of said resistance would extend the rise from 1.0621 low for at least a retracement of recent decline towards 1.0990-00, however, overbought condition should limit upside

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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