Thursday, August 14, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-14-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mixed after Jobless Claims, Euro Steady Despite Weak GDP

Dollar is mixed in early US session without a clear direction. The greenback weakened against commodity currencies today as stock markets rebounded. But it's staying in tight range against Euro and Swiss Franc. On the other hand, sterling extended this week's sharp fall and weakened broadly. Economic data from US has little impact on the markets. Initial jobless claims rose slightly more than expected by 21k to 311k in the week ended August 9, hitting the highest level in six weeks. Continuing claims rose 25k to 2.54m in the week ended August 2. Also released in early US session, US import price dropped -0.2% mom in July, Canada new housing price index rose 0.2% mom in June.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9044; (P) 0.9071; (R1) 0.9101; More....

The consolidation from 0.9114 continues and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper decline could be seen as the consolidation extends. Below 0.9032 will turn bias to the downside and extend the correction to near term channel support (now at 0.8983). Strong support would likely be seen there to bring another rally. Above 0.9114 will target 0.9156 key resistance next. However, sustained break of the channel support will indicate reversal and target 0.8855 and below.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Jul 53 53.3 53.4
22:45 NZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q2 1.20% 1.00% 0.70% 0.80%
23:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Jul 49% 51% 53% 52%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Jun 8.80% 15.50% -19.50%
05:30 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q2 P 0.00% 0.10% 0.00%
06:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q2 P -0.20% -0.10% 0.80%
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Jul 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
07:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jul -0.80% -0.90% -0.80%
08:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Jul F -0.70% -0.60% 0.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jul F 0.40% 0.40% 0.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Jul F 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
09:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.00% 0.10% 0.20%
12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Jun 0.20% 0.20% 0.10%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Jul -0.20% -0.40% 0.10%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 9) 311K 307K 289K 290K
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 81B 82B
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency jumped again today in part due to the release of US data, offers at 1.3375 and 1.3390-00 were filled but sell orders are located at 1.3420-25, 1.3445-50 and 1.3460-70, selling interest should emerge further out at 1.3475-80, 1.3490-00 and 1.3520-30. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.3370 and in good size at 1.3340-50, buy orders are still noted above 1.3325 barrier with stops placed below, fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.3300-10 with more stops seen below another barrier at figure, some buy orders are tipped at 1.3285, 1.3265 and 1.3250.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6750

Cable's recovery after intra-day brief fall to 1.6658 suggests minor consolidation would be seen and recovery to 1.6725-30 cannot be ruled out, however, previous support at 1.6757 should limit upside and bring another decline, break of said support at 1.6658 would extend recent decline from 1.7192 top for further weakness to 1.6630, however, oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.6600

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 102.05

As dollar's rebound from last week's low of 101.51 turned out to be stronger than expected, suggesting early retreat from 103.09 has ended at 101.51 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of said resistance, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and signal the rise from 100.82 is still in progress, bring headway to 103.40-50, having said that, as broad outlook remains consolidative, upside should be limited and resistance at 104.13 should remain intact.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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