Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-20-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sterling Recovers after BoE Minutes, But Stays Bearish

Sterling recovers in general today as BoE meeting minutes showed two policy makers voted for rate hike in August MPC meeting. Nonetheless, the recovery in the pound is so far rather weak. GBP/USD and GBP/JPY are held below near term resistance of 1.6737 and 172.57 respectively. EUR/GBP is also held above near term support of 0.7920. Overall, outlook in sterling remains bearish. Elsewhere, dollar extends recent rally as markets await FOMC minutes to be released later in US afternoon. In particular, EUR/USD takes out 1.33 handle with today's decline. USD/CHF also finally catches up and breaks recent resistance of 0.9114.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9036; (P) 0.9052; (R1) 0.9081; More....

USD/CHF's break of 0.9114 resistance indicates that recent rebound from 0.8702 has resumed. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.9156 key resistance next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. On the downside, break of 0.9022 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Jul -1.02T -0.77T -1.08T -1.07T
00:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Jul -0.10% 0.10%
04:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Jun -0.40% -0.20% 0.60%
06:00 EUR German PPI M/M Jul -0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
06:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Jul -0.80% -0.70%
08:30 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 2--0--7 0--0--9 0--0--9
08:30 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9 0--0--9
10:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Aug 11 4 2
12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jun 0.60% 1.30% 2.20%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M
18:00 USD FOMC Minutes
     
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound bounced off low as 2 MPC members voted to raise rates at the latest BOE meeting, however, sell orders are still seen at 1.6680-85 and in good size at 1.6700 and 1.6725, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.6750 and 1.6775-85, selling interest is expected further out at 1.6800-10 (stops above). On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.6600-15 area with stops building up below figure, fresh demand is likely to emerge around 1.6585 as well as 1.6550-60 (stops below).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9080

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after rallying from 0.9024, suggesting early erratic rise from 0.8699 low has resumed and further gain to previous resistance at 0.9157 would be seen, break there would extend headway towards 0.9190-00, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond latter level, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3320

Yesterday's selloff together with the breach of previous support at 1.3333 confirm recent decline has resumed and further weakness to 1.3265-70 (61.8% projection of 1.3651-1.3367 measuring from 1.3445) would be seen, below there would extend fall to 1.3220-25, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.3200 and reckon 1.3160-70 would hold from here.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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