Tuesday, August 26, 2014

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Daily Report: Euro Stays Weak on Easing Speculations

Solid consumer confidence data and easing geopolitical tensions pushed US equities higher overnight. S&P 500 closed at 2000.02, above 2000 handle for the first time on record. DOW also rose slightly by 29.8 pts to close at 17106.70. In the currency markets, Euro remains the weakest major currency this week on easing speculations. Dollar is mixed, though, as it failed to extend recent rally against commodity currencies. In particular, USD/CAD reversed after hitting 1.0997 and is possibly heading further south in near term. The economic calendar continues to be rather light today. German Gfk consumer sentiment for September dropped more than expected to 8.6. Swiss UBS consumption indicator dropped to 1.66 in July.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4120; (P) 1.4170; (R1) 1.4196; More...

EUR/AUD's fall resumed after brief consolidations and reaches as low as 1.4116 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.4050 key support level. At this point, we're still viewing fall from 1.5831 as correction and expect strong support from 1.4050 to bring reversal. Above 1.4220 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 1.4477 resistance first. However, sustained trading below 1.4050 will carry larger bearish implications.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
6:00 EUR German GfK Consumer Sentiment Sep 8.6 8.9 9 8.9
6:00 CHF UBS Consumption Indicator Jul 1.66 2.06 2.07
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.1M -4.5M
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrowly today, offers remain at 1.3220-30, 1.3250-60 and also at 1.3280-85, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.3295-00, more sell orders are expected at 1.3320-30, 1.3350 and 1.3370. On the downside, some bids are still seen at 1.3180, 1.3165 and above option barrier at 1.3150, more buy orders are tipped at 1.3135 and in good size at 1.3100-20 area with some stops placed below figure, fresh demand should emerge around 1.3085, 1.3065 and 1.3050.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.3260 or buy at 1.3140

Euro's near term sideways trading is likely to continue and although recovery to the upper Kumo (now at 1.3240) cannot be ruled out, reckon 1.3260-65 would limit upside, bring another decline later, a break of intra-day support at 1.3179 would extend recent decline to 1.3150-55 (50% projection of 1.3297-1.3183 measuring from 1.3208), however,  downside would be limited to 1.3135-40 (61.8% projection) and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Sell at 104.60 or buy at 103.20

Dollar's retreat after yesterday's rise to 104.28 suggests consolidation below this level would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited to support at 103.50 and renewed buying interest should emerge around 103.20-25, price should stay well above previous resistance at 103.09 and bring another rise later, above said resistance would extend one more rise to 104.40-45

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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