Thursday, August 28, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-28-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mildly Higher as Q2 GDP Revised Up

Dollar strengthened against European majors earlier today and is gathering some more steam after better than expected economic data. Q2 GDP growth in US was revised up to 4.2%, from initial estimate of 4.0%, and beat expectation of downward revision to 3.9%. GDP price index was also revised up to 2.1% versus expectation of 2.0%. Initial jobless claims was relatively unchanged at 298k in the week ended August 23. While the greenback is mildly higher against European majors, it's stuck in this week's tight range and the greenback is also soft against yen and commodity currencies. Also, weakness in European stock index could drag S&P 500 back below 2000 handle today.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9128; (P) 0.9156; (R1) 0.9175; More....

USD/CHF drew some support from 4 hours 55 EMA and recovers but stays in tight range below 0.9184 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral first for some more consolidations. We'd expect downside of pull back to be contained above 0.9022 support and bring resumption. Break of 0.9184 should target 161.8% projection of 0.8702 to 0.9036 from 0.8855 at 0.9395 next.

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Economic Indicators Update

 

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure Q2 1.10% -0.80% -4.20%
07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Aug 2K -6K -12K 12K
08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jul 1.80% 1.50% 1.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Aug 100.6 101.5 102.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Aug -5.3 -4.5 -3.8
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Aug F -10 -10 -8.4
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Aug 3.1 3.5 3.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Indicator Aug 0.16 0.1 0.17
10:00 GBP CBI Reported Sales Aug 37 25 21
12:00 EUR German CPI M/M Aug P 0.00% 0.00% 0.30%
12:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Aug P 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q2 S 4.20% 3.90% 4.00%
12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q2 S 2.10% 2.00% 2.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 23) 298K 299K 298K 299K
14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jul 0.60% -1.10%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 79B 88B
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped as the greenback recovered across the board on news that Russian troops entering in Ukraine, the release of better-than-expected US GDP data also helped supporting dollar, bids at 1.3185 were filled but defensive buy orders are still noted above barrier at 1.3150 with stops building up below there, more buying interest is located at 1.3135, 1.3120 and 1.3100-05 (stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.3085, 1.3065 and 1.3050. On the upside, offers are lined up from 1.3220 up to 1.3250 (stops above), more sell orders are tipped at 1.3280-85, 1.3300 and 1.3320 with stops placed above there, selling interest is expected at 1.3350 and 1.3370.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9105

Dollar's retreat after yesterday's initial brief rise to 0.9185 has retained our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and test of 0.9120-23 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9024-0.9185) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon Friday's low at 0.9103 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Above said resistance would extend recent upmove for gain to 0.9200 and possibly 0.9225-30

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.3170

As the single currency found support at 1.3153 yesterday and has staged a rebound since, retaining our view that further consolidation above this level would be seen with mild upside bias for retracement of recent decline to 1.3250 and possibly 1.3270, however, reckon resistance at 1.3297 would cap upside and bring another decline later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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