Friday, November 7, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-7-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recovered after NFP Knee Jerk Reaction, CAD Rebounds

Dollar remains firm in early US session even employment data came in a bit below expectation. Non-farm payroll showed 214k growth in the job market in October versus expectation of 228k. Nonetheless, prior month's figure was revised slightly higher to 256k. Also, it's the ninth straight month that job growth exceeded 200k level. Unemployment rate also dropped to 5.8% versus expectation of 5.9%, hitting the lowest level since 2008. That were some knee jerk reactions to the release as dollar dipped initially. But the greenback quickly recovers and is staying close to recent high against other major currencies, except Canadian dollar.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.33; (P) 114.92; (R1) 115.78; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 115.51 temporary top might extend. But strong support should be seen at 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 112.41) and bring rise resumption. Above 115.51 will target 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 next.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Oct 3.20% 3.20% 3.20%
07:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Sep 1.40% 2.10% -4.00% -3.10%
07:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Sep 18.5B 18.3B 17.5B
08:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Oct 460.4B 462.2B
08:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Sep 0.30% 2.20% 1.90% 1.40%
09:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Sep -9.8B -9.4B -9.1B -9.0B
13:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Oct 214K 228K 248K 256K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate Oct 5.80% 5.90% 5.90%
13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Oct 43.1K 0.4K 74.1K
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Oct 6.50% 6.80% 6.80%
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency went up and down in part due to mixed US job reports, offers at 1.2410-30 area were filled but sell orders are still noted at 1.2450 (some stops above 1.2460), 1.2475-85 and 1.2500, more selling interest is reported at 1.2515, 1.2525-35 (more stops above) and 1.2550-55. On the downside, bids at 1.2365-70 were filled but buy orders are seen at 1.2350-55 with stops building up below barrier at 1.2350, fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.2325-35, 1.2300-10 and 1.2280-85, buyers are lined up at 1.2265 and 1.2250.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy again at 1.1265

As the pair has slipped after faltering below this week's high at 1.1467, retaining our view that consolidation below this level would be seen and initial downside bias remains for retracement to 1.1295-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1122-1.1467), however, reckon 1.1254-59 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement and previous minor support) would limit downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance at 1.1467 would signal the rise from 1.0660 low is still in progress

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy at 141.20

As the single currency has retreated after rising to 144.22 yesterday, suggesting minor wave iii has possibly ended there and consolidation below this level would be seen with initial downside bias for retracement to 141.45-50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 137.04-144.22), however, reckon 141.00 would contain downside and bring another rise later. A break of said resistance would signal recent rally from 134.14 low is still in progress and extend gain towards 145.00

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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