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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Tumbles on Dovish BoE Inflation ReportSterling drops broadly today after dovish BoE inflation report. Policymakers trimmed the growth forecasts and forecast that inflation would slow further in coming months. While the employment data had shown signs of improvement, the central bank noted that the decline in the unemployment rate was mainly driven by the lower participation rate, rather than increase in payroll. Speculations over BOE's first rate have been pushed backward, thus sending the gilts higher. On growth, the central bank projected that GDP would expand by +2.9% in 2015, down from +3.1% previously estimated. Growth forecast for 2016 was also revised lower to +2.6% from +2.8% previously. The inflation outlook was also lowered with the BOE now expecting CPI to reach +1.7% in 2015, down from +1.7% estimated in the past quarter. The reported indicated that inflation rate would likely to fall below +1% within 6 months but would return to the +2% target at end of 3-year forecast period. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5852; (P) 1.5898; (R1) 1.5962; More... GBP/USD faced some strong resistance from 4 hours 55 EMA and drops sharply today. But it's staying above 1.5789 temporary low so far. Intraday bias remains neutral and some more consolidations could be seen. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 1.6021 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 1.5789 will extend the fall from 1.7190 to 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. Sustained break will pave the way to 1.4813 key support level. However, above 1.6021 will turn focus back to 1.6184 resistance instead. |
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Orders and Options Watch | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound tumbled as BOE cut growth and inflation forecast in quarterly inflation report, bids at 1.5900-05, 1.5875-80, 1.5850 and 1.5825-35 were filled, however, buy orders are still noted at 1.5800-10, fresh demand should emerge around 1.5775-85, 1.5750-60 and 1.5725-35. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.5840 and 1.5875-80, more sell orders are tipped at 1.5900-10 and in good size at 1.5940-50 (stops above), selling interest is expected at 1.5975-85, 1.6000-10 and 1.6025-30. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.2415The single currency found good support at 1.2394 yesterday and has staged a strong rebound, retaining our view that further consolidation above 1.2358 (last week's low) would be seen and test of resistance at 1.2509 is likely, break there would signal a temporary low has been formed at 1.2358, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.2515-20 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2771-1.2358) and possibly previous resistance at 1.2534 but reckon resistance at 1.2577 would cap upside. Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy at 142.20Although the single currency resumed recent upmove after finding renewed buying interest at 142.09 earlier this week, as this move is viewed as minor wave v, reckon upside would be limited to 144.90-00 and reckon 145.65-70 (50% projection of 137.04-144.22 measuring from 142.09 and previous chart resistance) would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a correction of recent upmove in larger degree wave iv back towards support at 142.09 (previous 4th of a lesser degree) Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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