Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 11-19-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Selloff Continues as BoJ Kuroda Gained More Support

Yen weakens broadly today after BoJ left policies unchanged and USD/JPY made new seven year high. The main focus of today's announce is the vote split. BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda won the tight 5-4 vote on additional monetary stimulus during the October 31 meeting, which included raising the annual target of monetary base expansion to JPY 80T. But this time, Takahid Kiuchi is the only board member dissented to the decision in maintaining the target. Regarding the economy, BoJ noted in the statement that "Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend, although some weaknesses remain mainly in output." Yesterday, prime minister Shinzo Abe announced to call an early election for fresh mandate for his Abenomics that include postponing the scheduled sales tax hike.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.51; (P) 146.10; (R1) 147.05; More...

EUR/JPY's rally continues today and reaches as high as 146.95 so far. Larger up trend from 94.11 should have resumed and the cross is now targeting next fibonacci level at 152.59. On the downside, below 144.78 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained by 142.08 support and bring rally resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Oct 0.00% -0.10%
4:30 JPY All Industry Activity Index M/M Sep 1.00% 1.20% -0.10%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Sep 21.3B 18.9B
9:30 GBP BoE Minutes
9:30 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 2--0--7 2--0--7
9:30 GBP MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes 0--0--9 0--0--9
10:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Nov -30.7
13:30 USD Housing Starts Oct 1.03M 1.02M
13:30 USD Building Permits Oct 1.04M 1.02M
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.7M
19:00 USD FOMC Minutes
21:45 NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 0.30% -1.00%
21:45 NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 0.20% -0.50%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Oct -1.02T -1.07T
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency staged a strong rebound from 1.2443, offers at 1.2500-10 and 1.2530 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.2550-55 (stops above) and in good size from 1.2580 up to 1.2600 with more stops placed above 1.2605, selling interest should emerge further out at 1.2640-50. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.2500-05, 1.2465-70 and in good size at 1.2440-45 (stops below), more buy orders are reported at 1.2420-30 with stops building up below 1.2390, buying interest is noted at 1.2375-80 and 1.2355-60 with more stops placed below barrier at 1.2350, fresh demand should emerge around 1.2325-35 and 1.2300.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7925

As the single currency has risen again after last week's anticipated rally, adding credence to our view that retreat from 0.8047 has ended at 0.7799 as wave b and upside bias is seen for current wave c (tentatively an impulsive move) to bring retest of said resistance at 0.8047, break there would extend the rise from 0.7766 low for further gain to 0.8066 and later towards 0.8100-10.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.1260

Although the greenback slipped again to 1.1260 earlier today, as the move from 1.1467 (this month's high) is still viewed as retracement of recent upmove, reckon 1.1254-59 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1122-1.1467 and previous minor support) would limit downside and bring another rebound, above resistance at 1.1402 would signal the pullback from 1.1467 has ended and bring retest of this resistance, break there would signal the rise from 1.0660 low has resumed and may extend further gain in wave v to 1.1475-80

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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