Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-5-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rises on Republican Win, Supported by Job Data

Dollar gains broadly today as Republicans won control of the Senate from Democrats in the mid-term election. The results now give the Republicans control over both chambers of Congress for the remaining term of President Barack Obama. Markets generally saw the result as positive for both the economy and the dollar. US futures are pointing to a higher open and the major indices would likely extend the record run. Meanwhile, dollar index extended recent up trend and hits as high as 87.60 so far. The greenback is also supported by positive job data, which saw ADP employment rose 230k in October versus expectation of 210k. Released from Europe, UK services PMI dropped to 56.2 in October, missing expectation of 58.5. UK BRC shop price index dropped -1.9% yoy in October. Eurozone retail sales dropped -1.3% mom in September versus expectation of -0.6% mom. Eurozone services PMI was revised down to 52.3 in October. Italy services PMI rose more than expected to 50.8 in October. Swiss CPI rose to 0% yoy in October.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.17; (P) 113.59; (R1) 114.01; More...

USD/JPY's rally resumed after brief consolidation and reaches as high as 114.83 so far. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rally should now target 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 next. On the downside, break of 113.16 will indicate short term topping and will bring lengthier consolidation before staging another rally.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q3 5.40% 5.50% 5.60%
21:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q3 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.50%
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Oct 36.90% 36.20% 35.30%
00:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Oct -1.90% -1.80%
01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Sep 0.80% 0.90% 1.40% 0.90%
08:15 CHF CPI M/M Oct 0.00% 0.00% 0.10%
08:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Oct 0.00% -0.10% -0.10%
08:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Oct 50.8 49.6 48.8
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Oct F 52.3 52.4 52.4
09:30 GBP Services PMI Oct 56.2 58.5 58.7
10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep -1.30% -0.60% 1.20% 0.90%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Oct 230K 210K 213K
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Oct 57.8 58.6
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 2.1M
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrow and further sideways trading is in store. At the moment, sell orders are still noted at 1.254-50 and 1.2585, more sellers are waiting at 1.2600, 1.2620-25 and 1.2650-55, selling interest should emerge around 1.2670, 1.2685 and 1.2700. On the downside, bids are noted at 1.2460-70, 1.2440 (stops below) and 1.2425, more buy orders are tipped at 1.2400-10 (stops below barrier at 1.2400), 1.2385 and 1.2350, fresh demand should emerge around 1.2330-30 and 1.2300.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.2525

Euro's intra-day break of 1.2500 signals the rebound from 1.2440 (this week's low) has ended at 1.2577 and bearishness remains for a retest of this level, break there would extend recent decline to 1.2405-10 (100% projection of 1.2771-1.2547 measuring from 1.2632), however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.2370-75 and reckon 1.2350 would hold

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 113.20

The greenback has risen again after finding renewed buying interest at 113.17 and bullishness remains for recent upmove to extend further gain to 114.65-70 (50% projection of 108.80-112.99 measuring from 112.57), however, overbought condition should limit upside to 115.00 and reckon 115.40-50 would hold from here

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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