Thursday, November 6, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 11-7-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Firm ahead of Job Data

Dollar remains firm as markets turn focus to employment data in US. Non-farm payroll is expected to show 228k growth in October while unemployment is expected to be unchanged at 5.9%. Looking ahead other employment data, the ADP employment report showed 230k growth versus prior month's 225k. Employment component of ISM manufacturing improved from 58.5 to 59.6. Employment component of ISM non-manufacturing also improved from 54.6 to 55.5. The four week moving average of initial jobless claims dropped to 279k in the week ended November 1, hit the lowest level since April 2000. Continuing claims dropped 39k to 2.35m in the week ended October 25, lowest since December 2000. Conference board consumer confidence rose sharply to 94.5, hitting a seven-year high. Overall, the set of data support a positive NFP number.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9643; (P) 0.9690; (R1) 0.9778; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 0.8698 should extend to target 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone. Break will resume larger up trend. On the downside, below 0.9602 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained above 0.9359 support and bring another rally.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
06:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Oct 3.20% 3.20%
07:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Sep 2.10% -4.00%
07:00 EUR German Trade Balance (EUR) Sep 18.3B 17.5B
08:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Oct 462.2B
08:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Sep 2.20% 1.90%
09:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Sep -9.4B -9.1B
13:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Oct 228K 248K
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate Oct 5.90% 5.90%
13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Oct 0.4K 74.1K
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Oct 6.80% 6.80%
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped in NY morning on dovish remarks from ECB's Draghi, bids at 1.2460-70, 1.2440, 1.2425 and 1.2400-10 were filled, however, some buying interest is tipped at 1.2385 and 1.2350, fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.2330-30 and 1.2300. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.2450-60 and 1.2490-00, sizeable sell orders are expected at 1.2530-35, 1.2550 and 1.2565-75 (stops above 1.2580-85), more sellers are awaiting at 1.2600, 1.2620-25 and 1.2650-55.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.7800

The single currency continued to meet resistance at 0.7864 and has slipped again, suggesting marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, however, as long as recent low at 0.7766 holds, prospect of another rebound remains, a firm break above said resistance at 0.7860-65 would bring test of last week's high at 0.7913 but break there is needed to suggest low is possibly formed, bring test of 0.7940-50

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy again at 1.1300

As the greenback has retreated after yesterday's anticipated rise to 1.1467, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.1350 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.1300 and bring another rise later, a break of said resistance would signal  the rise from 1.0660 low is still in progress and may extend further gain in wave v to 1.1475-80

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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