Monday, November 3, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 11-4-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Aussie Soft as RBA Maintained Neutral Stance

Aussie remains soft in tight range close to near term support of 0.8642 against dollar. RBA kept cash rate unchanged at 2.50 as widely expected. Also, the central bank maintained the neutral stance and kept the language that "the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates." The accompanying statement is largely unchanged from the prior one. Also released from Australia, trade deficit widened to AUD -2.26b in September versus expectation of AUD -1.78b. Exports dropped for the second straight month, by -3.7% yoy while imports rose 2.5% yoy. Indeed, exports were down annually in four of the last five months. Retail sales rose more than expected by 1.2% mom in September.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8653; (P) 0.8706; (R1) 0.8736; More...

At this point, AUD?USD is holding above 0.8642 low and intraday bias remains neutral first. The sideway consolidation could extend. But in case of another recovery, we'd expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9401 to 0.8642 at 0.8932. Break of 0.8642 will extend the larger decline to next long term fibonacci level at 0.8544.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Sep -2.26B -1.78B -0.79B -1.01B
0:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Sep 1.20% 0.30% 0.10%
1:35 JPY Manufacturing PMI Oct F 52.4 52.8 52.8
3:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Sep 0.00% -0.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Sep -1.50% -1.40%
13:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Sep -0.7B -0.61B
13:30 USD Trade Balance Sep -$40.0B -$40.1B
15:00 USD Factory Orders Sep -0.20% -10.10%
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

JPY: Dollar surged again after triggering stops above 113.00, offers at 113.25, 113.40-50 and 113.80-85 were filled, some defensive offers are tipped ahead of 114.00 (another barrier) with more stops placed above there, more sell orders are expected at 114.20-25 and 114.50. On the downside, bids are raised to 113.50-60, 113.20-25 and 113.00, more buy orders are expected at 112.85, 112.55-60 and 112.30, fresh demand should emerge around 112.00-10, 111.75-80 and 111.55-60.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.1265

Last week's rally from 1.1122 suggests the wave iv correction from 1.1386 has ended there and upside bias remains for a retest of this recent high, however, break of this wave iii top is needed to confirm upmove has resumed in wave v for the rise from 1.0660 low to extend gain to 1.1440-50, then 1.1475-80

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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Hold long entered at 0.7800

Although the single currency has remained under pressure and marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, as long as recent low at 0.7766 holds, prospect of another rebound remains, above previous support at 0.7860-65 would bring test of last week's high at 0.7913 but break there is needed to suggest low is possibly formed, bring test of 0.7940-50

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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