Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-4-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Dragged Down by Tumbling Oil

Canadian dollar faced some pressure on falling crude oil price and broke 1.1385 support against dollar decisively. Crude oil finally gave up 80 psychological level this week and reaches as low as 75.84 so far today. Saudi Arabia's price cut on oil export to US signaled the Kingdom has confirmed to accept lower oil prices for higher market share. Released from Canada, trade balance turned to CAD 0.7b surplus in September versus expectation of CAD -0.7b deficit. From US, trade deficit widened to USD -43b in September.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1287; (P) 1.1332; (R1) 1.1401; More...

USD/CAD rises to as high as 1.1426 so far today and the break of 1.1385 resistance confirmed rally resumption. Intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rise should target 61.8% projection of 1.0810 to 1.1385 from 1.1121 at 1.1476 first. Break will target 100% projection at 1.1696 nest. On the downside, below 1.1333 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But retreat should be contained by 1.1121 and bring another rally.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Sep -2.26B -1.78B -0.79B -1.01B
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Sep 1.20% 0.30% 0.10%
01:35 JPY Manufacturing PMI Oct F 52.4 52.8 52.8
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Sep 0.20% 0.00% -0.10% -0.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Sep -1.40% -1.50% -1.40%
13:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Sep 0.7B -0.7B -0.61B -0.5B
13:30 USD Trade Balance Sep -43B -$40.0B -$40.1B -40.0B
15:00 USD Factory Orders Sep -0.60% -0.20% -10.10%
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency traded narrow and further sideways trading is in store. At the moment, sell orders are still noted at 1.254-50 and 1.2585, more sellers are waiting at 1.2600, 1.2620-25 and 1.2650-55, selling interest should emerge around 1.2670, 1.2685 and 1.2700. On the downside, bids are noted at 1.2460-70, 1.2440 (stops below) and 1.2425, more buy orders are tipped at 1.2400-10 (stops below barrier at 1.2400), 1.2385 and 1.2350, fresh demand should emerge around 1.2330-30 and 1.2300.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9590

As the greenback has retreated after yesterday's initial rise to 0.9691, retaining our view that minor consolidation below this level would be seen and corrective fall to 0.9612-18 (previous minor support and current level of the lower Kumo) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon support at 0.9581 would limit downside, bring another rise later, above said resistance at 0.9691 would extend recent upmove from 0.8699 low to 0.9720-25

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.2565

Euro's recovery after yesterday's initial fall to 1.2440 has retained our view that consolidation above this level would be seen and corrective bounce to 1.2535-40 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2632-1.2440) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 1.2565-70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2771-1.2440) would limit upside and bring another selloff later. A break of said support at 1.2440 would extend recent decline to 1.2400-10

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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