Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-18-14

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Markets Range Bound Despite Important Events and Data

The forex markets are lacking a clear direction today. While Japanese prime minister Abe finally announce the snap election and delay in tax hike, there was no sustained selling in the yen. Euro was lifted mildly by better than expected investor confidence data but it's staying in range against dollar. The greenback also got little inspiration from US data. US PPI dropped to 1.5% yoy in October but was above expectation of 1.2%. Meanwhile, PPI core rose to 1.8% yoy versus expectation of 1.5% yoy.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2403; (P) 1.2490 (R1) 1.2536; More....

EUR/USD recovers again today but it's, after all, stuck in range above 1.2357. And, with 1.2613 minor resistance intact, further fall is still expected. Below 1.2357 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144. However, break of 1.2357 will indicate short term bottoming with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, strong rebound should be seen to 1.2886 resistance.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Sep -0.30% -0.20% -0.10%
00:30 AUD RBA Minutes
09:30 GBP CPI M/M Oct 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
09:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Oct 1.30% 1.30% 1.20%
09:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Oct 1.50% 1.60% 1.50%
09:30 GBP RPI M/M Oct 0.00% 0.10% 0.20%
09:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Oct 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%
09:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Oct -1.50% -1.60% -0.60%
09:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Oct -8.40% -8.30% -7.40%
09:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Oct -0.30% -0.20% -0.10% -0.20%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Oct -0.50% -0.20% -0.40% -0.50%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Oct 0.10% 0.00% -0.10%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Oct 0.90% 0.80% 0.80%
09:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Sep 12.10% 12.10% 11.70%
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Nov 11.5 0.5 -3.6
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Nov 3.3 1.8 3.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Nov 11 4.3 4.1
13:30 USD PPI M/M Oct 0.20% -0.10% -0.10%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Oct 1.50% 1.20% 1.60%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Oct 0.40% 0.10% 0.00%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Oct 1.80% 1.50% 1.60%
15:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 55 54
21:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep 41.3B $52.1B
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency staged a strong rebound from 1.2443, offers at 1.2500-10 and 1.2530 were filled, however, sell orders are still noted at 1.2550-55 (stops above) and in good size from 1.2580 up to 1.2600 with more stops placed above 1.2605, selling interest should emerge further out at 1.2640-50. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.2500-05, 1.2465-70 and in good size at 1.2440-45 (stops below), more buy orders are reported at 1.2420-30 with stops building up below 1.2390, buying interest is noted at 1.2375-80 and 1.2355-60 with more stops placed below barrier at 1.2350, fresh demand should emerge around 1.2325-35 and 1.2300.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Hold long entered at 1.2460

Although the single currency retreated sharply after yesterday's rise to 1.2578 and consolidation would be seen, if our view that a temporary low formed at 1.2358 is correct, downside should be limited and 1.2440-45 should hold, bring another rise later, above 1.2540 would signal the retreat from 1.2578 has ended and bring a retest of said resistance at 1.2578, break there would bring retracement of recent decline to 1.2600 and possibly 1.2610-15

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.9650

Although the greenback staged a strong rebound after falling to 0.9553 yesterday, reckon upside would be limited too 0.9655-60 and bring another fall, below 0.9570-75 would suggest the rebound from 0.9553 has ended and bring another fall to this level, break there would signal the erratic decline from 0.9742 top has resumed for retracement of recent upmove to 0.9544, then towards 0.9500-10.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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