Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 11-12-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Extends Down Trend as Hope of Delay in Tax Hike

The Japanese yen declined broadly this week and stays soft in Asian session today. Nikkei also extended recent up trend and hit new seven years high. The move was triggered by news that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe might postpone the planned sales tax hike in October 2015, by as long as a year and a half. And Abe could call a general election this December to take the issue to voters. He might make a decision after getting the Q3 GDP data due next Monday, which could reflect the continuation of impact of the sales tax hike earlier this year. The delay of the next tax hike is seen as generally stock positive. Meanwhile, this could most likely deteriorate the already bad fiscal health of Japan and raised doubts on whether the government can achieve fiscal balance outside debt payments by 2020. This, it's also yen negative.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 143.18; (P) 143.84; (R1) 145.10; More...

EUR/JPY rises to as high as 144.68 so far and break of 144.21 indicates rally resumption. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 145.68 key resistance next. Break will resume larger up trend from 94.11. On the downside, break of 142.08 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Nov 1.90% 0.90%
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Sep 1.00% 0.80% -0.10%
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Oct 3.20% 3.00% 3.00% 3.10%
0:30 AUD Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q3 0.60% 0.60% 0.60%
9:30 GBP Claimant Count Change Oct -20.0K -18.6K
9:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Oct 2.70% 2.80%
9:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 3M Sep 5.90% 6.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Sep 0.70% -1.80%
10:30 GBP BoE Quarterly Inflation Report
15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Sep 0.20% 0.70%
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency recovered after finding support just below 1.2400, however, offers are still noted at 1.2440-50 and 1.2475-80, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.2500-10, more sell orders are tipped at 1.2520-25 (stops above 1.2530-35) and 1.2550-55, selling interest is reported at 1.2580 and 1.2600. On the downside, bids remain at 1.2390-95, some buy orders are reported at 1.2375, 1.2355-60, combination of bids and stops is seen at barrier at 1.2350, fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.2325-35, 1.2300-10 and 1.2280-85.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: GBP/USD - Buy at 1.5820

Although the British pound has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.5835, reckon upside would be limited and near term downside risk remains for marginal weakness from here, however, reckon 1.5815-20 would contain downside and bring another rebound later, above resistance at 1.5918 would bring retracement of recent fall to 1.5940 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6183-1.5790), then towards 1.5987 (50% Fibonacci retracement) but reckon resistance at 1.6002 would limit upside

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.2380

Although the single currency has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.2394, break of 1.2460 is needed to signal the retreat from yesterday's high of 1.2509 has ended and bring another test of this level, break there would add credence to our view that temporary low has possibly been formed at 1.2358, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.2515-20 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2771-1.2358) and possibly previous resistance at 1.2534 but reckon resistance at 1.2577 would cap upside.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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