Monday, November 17, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 11-18-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Steady as Markets Await PM Abe

Japanese Nikkei rebounded strongly today and is up over 300 pts at the time of writing while the Japanese yen is staying in tight range. Markets are awaiting prime minister Shinzo Abe's press conference. As Japan unexpectedly entered into recession, as yesterday's GDP report showed, Abe is expected to call an early election to secure support for delaying the next sales tax hike scheduled for October 2015. It's speculated that the delay could be up to 18 months. Abe will meet with his Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy first and announce the decision later in Japan evening. Yen extended recent down trend last week on such speculations as delay of tax hike would worsen the fiscal outlook of the country.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 115.67; (P) 116.36; (R1) 117.27; More...

Upside momentum in USD/JPY remains rather unconvincing for the moment. But again, with 113.85 support intact, further rally is still expected. Current rise should continue to 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 next. However, break of 113.85 will indicate short term topping and bring deeper correction before staging another rally.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:00 AUD Conference Board Leading Index Sep -0.30% -0.20% -0.10%
0:30 AUD RBA Minutes
9:30 GBP CPI M/M Oct 0.10% 0.00%
9:30 GBP CPI Y/Y Oct 1.30% 1.20%
9:30 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Oct 1.60% 1.50%
9:30 GBP RPI M/M Oct 0.10% 0.20%
9:30 GBP RPI Y/Y Oct 2.30% 2.30%
9:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Oct -1.60% -0.60%
9:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Oct -8.30% -7.40%
9:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Oct -0.20% -0.10%
9:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Oct -0.20% -0.40%
9:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Oct 0.00% -0.10%
9:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Oct 0.80% 0.80%
9:30 GBP DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y Sep 12.10% 11.70%
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Nov 0.5 -3.6
10:00 EUR German ZEW (Current Situation) Nov 1.8 3.2
10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Nov 4.3 4.1
13:30 USD PPI M/M Oct -0.10% -0.10%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Oct 1.20% 1.60%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Oct 0.10% 0.00%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Oct 1.50% 1.60%
15:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 55 54
21:00 USD Net Long-term TIC Flows Sep 41.3B $52.1B
   

Orders and Options Watch

European Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency surged to 1.2578 earlier today before retreating ahead of European morning. At the moment, offers are lowered to 1.2545-55 (stops above) and in good size from 1.2580 up to 1.2600 with more stops placed above 1.2605, selling interest should emerge further out at 1.2640-50. On the downside, bids are now seen at 1.2505-15 and 1.2490, more buy orders in good size are reported at 1.2450-60 and 1.2420 with stops building up below 1.2390, buying interest is noted at 1.2375 and 1.2355-60 with more stops placed below 1.2350. Option expires today include: 1.2400 (over 1 bln), 1.2450 (over 1 bln), 1.2500 (1 bln), 1.2510 (over 2 bln) and 1.2525 (1 bln).

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell at 145.75

Although the single currency surged to 146.53 earlier today, current retreat suggests a temporary top has possibly been formed there and consolidation below this level would be seen with mild downside bias for retracement of recent upmove in wave iv to 144.30-40, then 143.75, below there would bring further weakness to 143.35 but reckon support at 142.09 (previous 4th of a lesser degree) would remain intact

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Exit long entered at 0.8610

Aussie found renewed buying interest at 0.8650 on Friday and has rallied again, retaining our bullishness for the rebound from 0.8541 (tentatively wave v bottom) to bring retracement of recent decline, above 0.8800 would extend gain towards 0.8845-55, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond there and reckon 0.8890-00 would cap upside, bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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