Thursday, November 13, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-13-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Staying in Range Against Euro in Listless Trading

Dollar continues to struggle in tight range against Euro in early US session. Job data released from US provides little inspiration. saw initial jobless claims rose to 290k in the week ended November 8, above expectation of 280k. From Canada, new housing price index rose 0.1% mom in September as expected. New York Fed president William Dudley said that it's "premature to begin to raise interest rates" as "there remains slack in the labor market and the inflation rate is still too low". Also, he added that "given the still high level of long-term unemployment, there could be a significant benefit to allowing the economy to run 'slightly hot' for a while in order to get these people employed again." He said if everything goes well, he's expect fed to start hiking rates "sometime next year". But meanwhile, he urged people to be patient with respecting to the timing of beginning of normalization of monetary policy.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2404; (P) 1.2451 (R1) 1.2483; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral for consolidations above 1.2357 temporary low. Stronger recovery might be seen but upside should be limited by 1.2613 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2357 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144. However, above 1.2613 will turn focus back to 1.2886 resistance instead.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Oct 59.3 58.1 58.5
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Sep 2.90% -1.20% 4.70%
00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Nov 4.10% 3.40%
00:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Oct 20% 25% 30%
04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep F 2.90% 2.70% 2.70%
05:30 CNY Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Oct 15.90% 16.00% 16.10%
05:30 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Oct 11.50% 11.60% 11.60%
05:30 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Oct 7.70% 8.00% 8.00%
07:00 EUR German CPI M/M Oct F -0.30% -0.20% -0.30%
07:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Oct F 0.70% 0.80% 0.80%
08:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Oct -0.10% -0.30% -0.10%
08:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Oct -1.10% -1.30% -1.40%
09:00 EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin
13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Sep 0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 8) 290K 280K 278K
16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.5M
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Oct -111.5B 105.8B
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency edged higher today but offers are still noted at 1.2480 and 1.2495-05 (stops above 1.2510), more sell orders are tipped at 1.2520-25 (stops above 1.2530-35) and 1.2550-55, selling interest is reported at 1.2580 and 1.2600. On the downside, bids remain at 1.2430-35 and 1.2420, buy orders are noted at 1.2395-05 (stops below 1.2390), 1.2375 and 1.2355-60, combination of bids and stops is seen at barrier at 1.2350.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Target met and buy again at 0.7870

Current anticipated rally adds credence to our view that low has possibly been formed at 0.7799 (our long position entered at 0.7800 met target at 0.7900 with 100 points profit) and consolidation with upside bias remains for the rebound from 0.7799 to extend gain to 0.7940-50, break there would signal the retreat from 0.8047 has ended and encourage for further gain to 0.8000. Looking ahead, only a breach of resistance area at 0.8047-66 would provide confirmation

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1260

The greenback met resistance at 1.1402 and has slipped again, retaining our view that further consolidation below last week's high at 1.1467 would be seen and another corrective fall to 1.1254-59 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1122-1.1467 and previous minor support) cannot be ruled out but renewed buying interest should emerge there, bring another rebound, above 1.1402 would signal the pullback from 1.1467 has ended and bring retest of this resistance

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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