Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 11-20-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Extends Rally Against Yen, Range Bound Elsewhere

Dollar extends recent up trend against the Japanese yen but remains range bound against other major currencies. The minutes of the October 29 FOMC meeting released overnight provided no revelations. The minutes noted that "many participants observed the committee should remain attentive to evidence of a possible downward shift in longer-term inflation expectations." And, "some of them noted that if such an outcome occurred, it would be even more worrisome if growth faltered." But still, at this point, policy makers believed that inflation expectations remained "well anchored" and would climb back to the 2% target "over the medium term as resource slack diminished." Also, the participants at the meeting "observed that if foreign economic or financial conditions deteriorated further, U.S. economic growth over the medium term might be slower than currently expected."

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8573; (P) 0.8646; (R1) 0.8692; More...

AUD/USD's fall from 0.8795 picked up some momentum. But still, it's held above 0.8539 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidation could be seen in range of 0.8539/8910. As long as 0.8910 resistance holds, deeper decline is still expected. Break of 0.8539 should target 61.8% projection of 0.9401 to 0.8642 from 0.8910 at 0.8441. However, decisive break of 0.8910 will indicate near term reversal and turn outlook bullish.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 -1.50% 0.30% -1.00%
21:45 NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 -1.10% 0.20% -0.50%
23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Oct -0.98T -1.02T -1.07T
1:45 CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI Nov P 50 50.2 50.4
7:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Oct 2.57B 2.45B
7:00 EUR German PPI M/M Oct -0.20% 0.00%
7:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Oct -0.90% -1.00%
8:00 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Nov P 48.9 48.5
8:00 EUR France Services PMI Nov P 48.6 48.3
8:30 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov P 51.5 51.4
8:30 EUR Germany Services PMI Nov P 54.5 54.4
9:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov P 50.9 50.6
9:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Nov P 52.3 52.3
9:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Oct 0.40% -0.30%
11:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Nov -3 -6
13:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Sep 0.70% 0.20%
13:30 USD CPI M/M Oct -0.10% 0.10%
13:30 USD CPI Y/Y Oct 1.60% 1.70%
13:30 USD CPI Core M/M Oct 0.20% 0.10%
13:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Oct 1.80% 1.70%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 15) 286K 290K
15:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Nov 18.5 20.7
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales Oct 5.15M 5.17M
15:00 USD Leading Indicators Oct 0.50% 0.80%
15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Nov A -11.1 -11.1
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 40B
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency has surged again in NY morning, offers at 1.2550-55 and stops above there were tripped, however, sell orders in good size are still noted from 1.2580 up to 1.2600 with more stops placed above 1.2605, selling interest should emerge further out at 1.2640-50. On the downside, bids are raised to 1.2510-20, 1.2465-70 and in good size at 1.2440-45 (stops below), more buy orders are reported at 1.2420-30 with stops building up below 1.2390, buying interest is noted at 1.2375-80 and 1.2355-60 with more stops placed below barrier at 1.2350, fresh demand should emerge around 1.2325-35 and 1.2300.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7955

Despite intra-day rise to 0.8039, as the single currency has retreated after faltering below previous resistance at 0.8047, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to 0.7975-80 cannot be ruled out, reckon support at 0.7955 would limit downside and bring another rise later. Above 0.8039-47 resistance area would add credence to our view that the wave c (tentatively an impulsive move) is still in progress for further gain to 0.8066

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.1260

As the greenback found renewed buying interest at 1.1260 yesterday and has rebounded, retaining our bullishness and consolidation with upside bias is seen for test of resistance at 1.1402, break there would signal the pullback from 1.1467 has ended and bring retest of this resistance, above there would signal the rise from 1.0660 low has resumed and may extend further gain in wave v to 1.1475-80

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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