Friday, November 14, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-14-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Higher after Retail Sales, Euro Shrugged off GDP

Dollar strengthens in early US session with the help of positive sales data. Headline retail sales rose 0.3% in October, inline with expectation. Ex-auto sales rose 0.3% too but beat expectation of 0.2%. Import prices dropped -1.3% mom in October versus expectation of -1.6% mom. Canadian manufacturing shipments rose 2.1% mom versus expectation of 1.1%. Dollar extends recent rise against Sterling and yen, with GBP/USD reaching 1.5615 and USD/JPY hitting 116.82 so far. The greenback does strength against Euro, Loonie and Aussie but respective pairs are held in recent range.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 114.90; (P) 115.45; (R1) 116.02; More...

USD/JPY's rally extends to as high as 116.82 so far and looks getting back some momentum. Intraday bias remains on the upside for 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 next. On the downside, again, break of 113.85 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
06:30 EUR French GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.30% 0.20% 0.00% -0.10%
07:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.10% 0.10% -0.20%
09:00 EUR Italian GDP Q/Q Q3 P -0.10% -0.10% -0.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Oct 0.00% 0.00% 0.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Oct F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Oct F 0.70% 0.70% 0.70%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 A 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Oct 0.30% 0.30% -0.30%
13:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Oct 0.30% 0.20% -0.20%
13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Oct -1.30% -1.60% -0.50%
13:30 CAD Manufacturing Shipments M/M Sep 2.10% 1.10% -3.30%
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Nov P 87.5 86.9
15:00 USD Business Inventories Sep 0.20% 0.20%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 91B
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency slipped in NY morning on dollar's broad-based rebound in part due to the release of stronger-than-expected US data, bids at 1.24220-30 and 1.2400-05 were filled, mixture of bids and stops at 1.2390-95 is now in focus, however, some buy orders are still noted at 1.2375 and 1.2355-60 with more stops placed below 1.2350. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.2440-50 and 1.2470-80, more sell orders are reported at 1.2490-05 (stops above 1.2510), 1.2520-25 (stops above 1.2530-35) and 1.2550-55, selling interest is expected at 1.2580 and 1.2600.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5720

As the British pound has remained under pressure after this week's resumption of recent decline, bearishness remains for the selloff from 1.7192 top to extend further  weakness to 1.5620-25, however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.5600, risk from there has increased for a rebound to take place later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Buy at 115.85

As the greenback has continued to move higher after breaking previous resistance at 116.10, adding credence to our bullish view for recent upmove to extend further gain to 116.80-85, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond 117.00 and reckon 117.13-15 (100% projection of 113.86-116.10 measuring from 114.89) would hold on first testing, risk from there has increased for a retreat to take place later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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