Sunday, November 2, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 11-3-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Firm, Aussie Lower ahead of a Busy Week

Dollar extends recent rally as the week starts and as markets prepare for a busy week ahead. Three central banks will meet including RBA, ECB and BoE. Meanwhile there are a number of key economic data from US this week which is crucial for maintaining dollar's momentum. ISM manufacturing will be release today and is expected to drop slightly to 56.5 in October. Trade balance will be featured tomorrow. US will release ADP employment and ISM services on Wednesday. The major event is Friday's non-farm payroll which is expected to show 228k growth in October with unemployment rate unchanged at 5.9%. Technically, EUR/USD's break of 1.2500 last week and USD/JPY's strong break of 110.08 already confirmed trend resumption. This week's major focus will be on 1.5876 in GBP/USD, 1.1385 in USD/CAD and 0.8642 in AUD/USD.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 110.16; (P) 111.32; (R1) 113.46; More...

USD/JPY opened the week higher again and reached 112.98 so far. Intraday bias remains on the upside and current up trend should target 100% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 114.19. Break will target 161.8% projection at 119.75 next. On the downside, below 111.88 minor support will bring brief consolidations before staging another rise.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation M/M Oct 0.20% 0.10%
0:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Sep -11.00% -0.90% 3.00% 3.40%
1:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Oct 53.8 54
1:45 CNY HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Oct F 50.4 50.4 50.4
8:30 CHF SVME PMI Oct 51.3 50.4
8:45 EUR Italy Manufacturing PMI Oct 50.6 50.7
9:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct F 50.7 50.7
9:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Oct 51.5 51.6
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Oct 56.5 56.6
15:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Oct 58.3 59.5
15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Sep 0.60% -0.80%
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency bounced off low of 1.2547 in NY morning in part due to the release of US GDP data, offers at 1.2600-20 were filled but sell orders in good size are still noted at 1.2640-50, more selling interest is tipped at 1.2670-80 and 1.2700-10. On the downside, some bids are seen at 1.2570-80 and in good size at 1.2540-50 as well as 1.2520-25, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.2490-00 but fresh demand should emerge further out at 1.2470 and 1.2450.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7800

As the single currency has fallen again after brief recovery, suggesting the decline from 0.8047 is still in progress and near term downside risk remains for weakness to 0.7815-20, however, as long as recent low at 0.7766 holds, prospect of another rebound remains, above this week's high at 0.7913 would suggest low is possibly formed, bring test of 0.7940-50, break there would signal  the retreat from 0.8047 has ended and bring a stronger rebound to 0.8000.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1265

Current rally signals the wave iv correction from 1.1386 has ended at 1.1122 earlier this week and upside bias is seen for a retest of this recent high, however, break of this wave iii top is needed to confirm upmove has resumed in wave v for the rise from 1.0660 low to extend gain to 1.1440-50, then 1.1475-80 (61.8% projection of 1.0811-1.1386 measuring from 1.1122) but reckon 1.1500 would hold on first testing.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

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