Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-7-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Markets Steady as Data and Central Banks Provided No Inspiration

The forex markets are generally steady today. Sterling is mildly higher against Euro today after production data. Industrial production rose 0.0% mom 2.5% yoy in August versus expectation of 0.0% mom, 2.5% yoy. Manufacturing production rose 0.1% mom, 3.9% yoy versus expectation of 0.1% mom, 3.4% yoy. German industrial production dropped sharply by -4.0% mom in August, much worse than expectation of -1.4% mom. That's also the worse figure since January 2009. Nonetheless, some analysts played down the significance of the one month figure. They noted that German manufacturing is expected to soften in coming months as already indicated by other leading indicators. Swiss CPI dropped back into negative territory at -0.1% yoy in September versus expectation of 0.0% yoy. Swiss foreign currency reserves rose to CHF 462.2b in September. Released from Canada, building permits dropped -27.3% mom in August versus expectation of -6.0% mom.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.33; (P) 109.08; (R1) 109.53; More...

USD/JPY is still staying in the consolidation pattern from 110.08 short term top and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper fall cannot be ruled out. But in that case, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 101.08 to 110.08 at 106.64 and bring rally resumption. Above 110.08 will extend recent up trend to long term fibonacci level at 111.62

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
03:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
05:00 JPY Leading Index Aug P 104 104.2 105.4
06:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Aug -4.00% -1.40% 1.90% 1.60%
07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves Sep 462.2B 453.8B
07:15 CHF CPI M/M Sep 0.10% 0.20% 0.00%
07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Sep -0.10% 0.00% 0.10%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Aug 0.00% 0.00% 0.50% 0.40%
08:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Aug 2.50% 2.60% 1.70% 2.20%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Aug 0.10% 0.10% 0.30%
08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Aug 3.90% 3.40% 2.20% 3.50%
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Aug -27.30% -6.00% 11.80%
14:00 GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Sep 0.70% 0.60% 0.80%
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency found renewed buying interest just above 1.2580 and has rebounded in NY morning, however, offers remain at 1.2670-85 area, selling interest is tipped further out at 1.2700-10 (stops above), sell orders are expected at 1.2715-25 and 1.2750. On the downside, bids remain at 1.2570-80 and 1.2540-45, buy orders are reported at 1.2525-30, 1.2500-10 and 1.2485, mixture of bids and stops is located at 1.2450, more buying interest is expected at 1.2420-25 and 1.2400.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell at 138.50

Although the single currency slipped again today and another test of last week's low at 136.87 is likely, break there is needed to confirm the decline from 141.23 (wave c top) has resumed and extend weakness to 136.50, then 136.00 but previous support at 135.82 should hold on first testing due to near term oversold condition. Looking ahead, only a drop below support at 135.82 would signal early decline has resumed and extend further fall to 135.50 and then 135.00

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Sell at 0.8895

The Australian dollar has continued to edge higher after rebounding from 0.8643 (last week's low), retaining our view that further consolidation above this level would be seen and test of resistance at 0.8827 cannot be ruled out, break there would bring retracement of recent decline to 0.8890-00 before renewed selling interests emerges. Below 0.8700 would bring another test of said support at 0.8643, break there would extend medium term downtrend to 0.8600 and possibly 0.8550

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

 

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