Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 10-15-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Firm on Falling Treasury Yields

Yen remains the strongest currency this week, with support from sharp decline in treasury yield. Two year yield suffered the largest decline since September 2013 while 10 year yield also broke below 3% for the first time since May 2003. Markets are concerned that slowdown in global economy, with risk of recession even in Germany, could delay Fed's rate hike. Markets are pricing in 45% for Fed's first rate hike by September 2015, down from nearly 75% at the beginning of the month. Technically, CAD/JPY is the weakest one this week as fresh selloff was seen in the Canadian dollar, also following the dive in crude oil. GBP/JPY was the next weakest one after yesterday's weak inflation data.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 169.28; (P) 170.88; (R1) 171.84; More.....

GBP/JPY drops to as low as 169.92 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for 169.34 key support level. Decisive break there will indicate medium term reversal and will pave the way to 163.87 support next. On the upside, above 172.47 minor resistance will turn bias neutral first. In that case, we'll access the strength of the rebound.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Oct 0.90% -4.60%
1:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Sep 1.60% 1.70% 2.00%
1:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Sep -1.80% -1.50% -1.20%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Aug F -1.50% -1.50%
6:00 EUR German CPI M/M Sep F 0.00% 0.00%
6:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Sep F 0.80% 0.80%
8:30 GBP Jobless Claims Change Sep -35.0K -37.2K
8:30 GBP Claimant Count Rate Sep 2.80% 2.90%
8:30 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Aug 6.10% 6.20%
9:00 CHF ZEW (Expectations) Oct -7.7
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Oct 20 27.54
12:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Sep -0.10% 0.60%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Sep 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD PPI M/M Sep 0.10% 0.00%
12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Sep 1.80% 1.80%
12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Sep 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Sep 1.70% 1.80%
14:00 USD Business Inventories Aug 0.30% 0.40%
18:00 USD Federal Reserve Beige Book
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

GBP: The British pound tumbled again today, bids at 1.5950-60, 1.5930 and 1.5910 were filled, however, some buy orders are still noted at 1.5900 and 1.5870, mixture of bids and stops is tipped at 1.5850-55. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.5970 and 1.6000-10, more sell orders are reported at 1.6050 (stops above), 1.6080-85 and 1.6100, selling interest is tipped at 1.6125-30, 1.6150 and 1.6180-85.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7860

As euro's rebound from 0.7766 has gathered momentum and broke above indicated level of 0.7915, adding credence to our view that the wave v has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for retracement of recent decline, hence further gain to 0.8010 would be seen, however, break there is needed to retain bullishness and encourage for a stronger rebound towards another previous resistance at 0.8066

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1100

The strong rebound after finding renewed buying interest at 1.1082 suggests the pullback from 1.1270 (this month's high) has possibly ended at 1.1082 last week and consolidation with upside bias is seen but only break of resistance at 1.1270-79 would confirm recent upmove has resumed and extend gain to 1.1300-10 and possibly 1.1340-50, however, overbought condition would limit upside to 1.1400.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

 

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