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Daily Report: Dollar Rebounded on Hawkish Fed, RBNZ Turned NeutralDollar rebounded strongly overnight as Fed struck a more hawkish than expected tone in the FOMC statement. Fed announced to end the so called QE3 as widely expected and left rates unchanged near zero. The third round of quantitative easing began back in September 2012 and will total around USD 1.,6T in security purchases, including USD 818b in MBS and USD 785b in treasuries. It's expected that Fed's balance sheet would finally peak just shy of USD 4.5T, slightly higher than 25% of nominal GDP. Before the statement, markets were pricing the first hike in around October 2015. However, the statement argued that the first hike could happen closer than Fed's own expectation, that is around June 2015. Thus, markets pull ahead the expectations and gave dollar a boost. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5956; (P) 1.6058; (R1) 1.6114; More... GBP/USD dropped sharply on broad based strength in dollar and break of 1.5994 turned bias to the downside for retesting 1.5876 low. With 1.6226 resistance intact, near term outlook stays bearish. Break of 1.5876 will extend the decline from 1.7190 and to 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. However, break of 1.6226 will bring stronger rebound back towards 1.6523 resistance instead. |
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Orders and Options Watch | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency remained confined in narrow range on back of huge option expires around 1.2700-25 area (over 3 bln), some offers are still noted at 1.2750, 1.2770 and 1.2785-90, mixture of offers and stops remains at 1.2800, sizeable sell orders are expected further out at 1.2820-25 and 1.2840-50. On the downside, bids remain at 1.2720-25, 1.2700-05 and 1.2685-90 (stops below), buy orders are expected at 1.2655-65 (more stops below 1.2650), 1.2620-35 area and 1.2600-10, more buying interest is tipped at 1.2585, 1.2565 and 1.2550. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP - Buy at 0.7820Although the single currency has recovered after this week's initial fall to 0.7862, near term downside risk remains for the fall from 0.8047 to extend weakness to 0.7850 and possibly towards 0.7820-25, however, if our view that low has been formed at 0.7766 as wave v trough is correct, this wave b should be limited to 0.7800 and bring another rebound later, above 0.7940-50 would suggest the retreat from 0.8047 has possibly ended and bring a stronger rebound to 0.8000. Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Buy at 1.1080Although the greenback has fallen again after yesterday's selloff on soft US data and near term downside risk remains for the decline from recent high of 1.1366 (tentatively wave iii top) to bring retracement of recent upmove in wave iv, reckon downside would be limited to previous support at 1.1072 and bring rebound later. Above 1.1195-00 would bring test of 1.1255-65, however, only break of 1.1300 would signal the correction from 1.1366 has ended Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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