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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Tumbles on CPI, Yen SurgesSterling tumbles sharply today on weaker than expected inflation data. CPI slowed to 1.2% yoy in September, down from prior month's 1.5% yoy and below expectation of 1.4% yoy. Core CPI also slowed sharply to 1.5% yoy, down from 1.9% yoy, versus expectation of 1.8% yoy. RSI dropped to 2.3% yoy, inline with consensus. PPI input rose back to -7.4% yoy, PPI output slowed to -0.4% yoy, PPI output core dropped to 0.8% yoy. The data triggered adjustment in market's expectation on the timing of BoE's first rate hike. Forward contracts now indicates that BoE could delay the rate hike to September next year. Earlier this year, there were speculations that BoE could raise rates as soon as by the end of 2014. Also released from UK, BRC sales monitor dropped -2.1% yoy in September. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.6047; (P) 1.6086; (R1) 1.6123; More... GBP/USD's sharp fall and break of 1.5951 today confirmed resumption of hole decline from 1.7190. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. Break will target 100% projections of 1.7190 to 1.6051 from 1.6523 at 1.5384. On the upside, break of 1.6226 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchGBP: The British pound tumbled again today, bids at 1.5950-60, 1.5930 and 1.5910 were filled, however, some buy orders are still noted at 1.5900 and 1.5870, mixture of bids and stops is tipped at 1.5850-55. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.5970 and 1.6000-10, more sell orders are reported at 1.6050 (stops above), 1.6080-85 and 1.6100, selling interest is tipped at 1.6125-30, 1.6150 and 1.6180-85. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.6010Cable's selloff together with the breach of previous support at 1.6009 and 1.5951 signals early decline from 1.7192 top has resumed and further weakness to 1.5900-10 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition would limit downside to 1.5870-75 and reckon previous support at 1.5854 would hold from here, bring rebound later. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.2700As euro's fall from 1.2768 (yesterday's high) has gathered momentum, suggesting another test of support at 1.2605 would be seen, however, a sustained breach below there is needed to signal rebound from 1.2501 has ended at 1.2791 last week, bring test of previous support at 1.2584, below there would confirm and extend weakness to 1.2545-55 but said support at 1.2501 should hold from here. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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