Friday, October 3, 2014

Action Insight Daily Report 10-3-14

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar in Tight Range as Markets Await Non-Farm Payroll

Dollar stays in tight range against other major currencies as consolidations continue. Non-farm payroll report is the focus today. Economists expect the US job market to grow 210k in September while unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 6.1%. Leading employment data saw ADP job grew 213k, an improvement from prior month's 202k. The 4 week moving average initial claims also dropped slightly to 294.8k. Both data were positive. However, the employment component of ISM manufacturing tumbled quite a lot from 58.1 to 54.6, which is negative. Conference board consumer confidence also dropped form 92.4 to 86.0. We'd be cautious on another month of downside surprise in NFP. Also to be watched from US are ISM services which is expected to drop to 58.5 in September, and US trade deficit which is expected to widen slightly to USD -40.7b in August.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1092; (P) 1.1134; (R1) 1.1198; More...

USD/CAD recovered after pull back was supported at 1.1071 and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Consolidation from 1.1223 short term top might extend and below 1.1071 will bring deeper fall. But in that case, downside should be contained well above 1.0886 support and bring another rally. Above 1.1223 will target 1.1278 resistance first. Break there will confirm resumption of the larger up trend from 0.9406.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
1:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Sep 54 54.4
7:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Sep 49.6 49.8
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Sep F 52.8 52.8
8:30 GBP Services PMI Sep 59 60.5
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.10% -0.40%
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Aug 1.50B 2.58B
12:30 USD Trade Balance Aug -$40.7B -$40.5B
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Sep 210K 142K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Sep 6.10% 6.10%
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Sep 58.5 59.6
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency rebounded in European session and offers at 1.2650-60, 1.2675 and 1.2680-85 were filled but more sell orders are reported at 1.2700-10, 1.2725-35 and 1.2750, selling interest is expected to emerge at 1.2775-85 and 1.2800. On the downside, bids remain at 1.2600, 1.2580-90 and 1.2565, buy orders in good size are tipped at 1.2540-50 (more stops below), 1.2525-35 and 1.2500 (stops below figure), fresh demand should emerge around 1.2485 and 1.2450.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CAD - Hold long entered at 1.1095

Although the greenback slipped earlier today to as low as 1.1072, as renewed buying interest emerged there and has rebounded, retaining our bullishness for recent upmove to resume after consolidation, above resistance at 1.1223 (yesterday's high) would extend further gain towards previous resistance at 1.1279 but a break of this recent high is needed to confirm medium term uptrend has resumed for headway to 1.1300-10 first.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.2715

Although the single currency has retreated after meeting resistance at 1.2699, reckon downside would be limited to 1.2590-00 and upside risk remains for the rebound from this week's low of 1.2571 to bring retracement of recent decline to resistance at 1.2715 before renewed selling interest emerges. A break of this week's low at 1.2571 is needed to signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.2550

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

 

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