Friday, October 3, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-3-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Soars as NFP Beat Expectations

Dollar surges sharply as US delivered better than expected job data. Non-farm payroll report showed 248k growth in September versus expectation of 210k. Prior month's figure was also revised up from 142k to 180k. Unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% versus expectation of 6.1%, hitting a six year low. Nonetheless, the participation rate dropped to 62.7%, the lowest level since February 1978. Also released from US, trade deficit narrowed to USD -40.1b in August. EUR/USD resumed recent decline and dropped through 1.2570, reaching as low as 1.2517 so far. USD/CHF also soars through 0.9596 resistance and reaches as high as 0.9660. GBP/USD also finally catches up and drops through 1.6051 support. The dollar index breaches long term projection target of 61.8% projection of 72.69 to 84.75 from 78.90 at 86.35. Medium term momentum remains strong and the up trend would now target 88.70/89.62 key resistance zone next.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2621; (P) 1.2659 (R1) 1.2706; More....

EUR/USD's fall resumes after brief consolidations and reaches as low as 1.2517 so far. Intraday bias is back on the downside. Current decline from 1.3993 should extend towards 1.2042 low. Meanwhile, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.2698 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and bring lengthier consolidation before staging another fall.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:00 CNY Non-manufacturing PMI Sep 54 54.4
07:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Sep 48.8 49.6 49.8
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Sep F 52.4 52.8 52.8
08:30 GBP Services PMI Sep 58.7 59 60.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Aug 1.20% 0.10% -0.40%
12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Aug -0.6B 1.50B 2.58B 2.2B
12:30 USD Trade Balance Aug -40.1B -$40.7B -$40.5B 40.3B
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Sep 248K 210K 142K 180K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Sep 5.90% 6.10% 6.10%
14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Sep 58.6 58.5 59.6
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency tumbled on dollar's broad-based strength after the release of stronger-than-expected US NFP data, bids at 1.2615-25, 1.2600, 1.2580-90, 1.2565, 1.2550 and 1.2525-35 were all filled, however, some buying interest is still seen at 1.2500, 1.2485 and 1.2450 (stops below). On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.2550, 1.2570 and 1.2590-00, mixture of offers and stops is located at 1.2620-30 with bigger stops placed above 1.2655-60.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Buy at 0.9620

The greenback has rallied after the release of US job data, confirming recent upmove from 0.8699 has resumed and further gain to 0.9690-00 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond previous chart resistance at 0.9752, risk from there has increased for a strong pullback later.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD - Sell at 1.2595

Current post-NDP selloff together with the breach of previous support at 1.2571 signal recent decline has resumed and further weakness to 1.2490-00 would be seen, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.2470 and reckon 1.2440-50 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a corrective rebound to take place later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

 

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