Friday, October 10, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-10-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Fights Back as Correction Finished

Canadian dollar recovers mildly against dollar after release of stronger than expected job data. The employment market grew 74.1k in September versus expectation of 20k. Unemployment rate also dropped to 6.8% versus expectation of staying at 7.0%. Nonetheless, USD/CAD is stuck in recently established range below 1.1278. The impact of the positive job data was offset by broad based strength in dollar. Released elsewhere, US import price index dropped -0.5% mom in September. UK trade deficit narrowed to GBP -9.1b in August, construction output dropped -3.9% mom in August. Japan consumer confidence dropped to 39.9 in September, tertiary industry index dropped -0.1% mom in August. Australia home loans dropped -0.9% in August.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.6070; (P) 1.6148; (R1) 1.6192; More...

The breach of 1.6031 minor support indicates that GBP/USD's recovery from 1.5951 is completed at 1.6226 already. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.5951 first. Break will resumption the fall from 1.7190 and target 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. On the upside, above 1.6226 will bring another recovery. But in that case, we'd expect upside to be limited well below 1.6523 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes
23:50 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Aug -0.10% 0.20% 0.00% -0.30%
00:30 AUD Home Loans Aug -0.90% 0.20% 0.30%
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Sep 39.9 42.2 41.2
08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GDP) Aug -9.1B -9.6B -10.2B -10.4B
08:30 GBP Construction Output M/M Aug -3.90% 0.50% 0.00% 1.90%
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Sep 74.1K 20K -11.0K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Sep 6.80% 7.00% 7.00%
12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Sep -0.50% -0.60% -0.90%
 
Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency dropped again and bids at 1.2650 and 1.2625 were filled but buy orders are reported at 1.2620 and 1.2600 (stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.2580-85, 1.2550-60 and 1.2500-10. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.2670-75, 1.2700 and 1.2715-20 (stops above), sell orders are expected at 1.2730-40, 1.2765-70 and 1.2790-00(stops above 1.2810), selling interest is tipped 1.2820-25 and 1.2850.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold long entered at 0.9490

As the greenback found good support at 0.9469 yesterday and has staged the anticipated rebound, retaining our bullishness for the rebound from there to bring at least a retracement of the fall from 0.9690, hence gain towards resistance at 0.9600 would be seen, however, reckon upside would be limited to previous resistance at 0.9625, risk from there is seen for a retreat later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY - Sell at 108.70

Dollar's recovery after falling to 107.53 yesterday has retained our view that consolidation above this level would be seen, above 108.18-20 would bring corrective bounce to the upper Kumo (now at 108.37) but resistance at 108.74 should limit upside and bring another decline later to 107.39-41 (previous resistance and 61.8% projection of 109.90-107.75 measuring from 108.74), however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 107.00

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

 

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