Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-29-14

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Soft ahead of FOMC

Dollar stays soft in general as markets await FOMC rate decision today. In particular, the greenback is weak against commodity currencies, which are being lifted by rally in the risk markets. DJIA is holding firm above 17000 level and registers some gain in early trading. Crude oil is holding above 82 level, extending the recovery from this week's low of 79.44. Economic data released today triggered little reactions. Canada IPPI dropped -0.3% mom in September while RMPI dropped -1.8% mom. UK mortgage approvals dropped to 61k in September while M4 dropped -0.7% mom. Japan industrial production rose 2.7% mom in September.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9440; (P) 0.9475; (R1) 0.9506; More....

No change in USD/CHF's outlook. The correction from 0.9688 could extend lower. But still, we'd expect strong support inside 0.9300/9395 support zone to complete the correction and bring rebound. Above 0.9559 will turn bias to the upside for retesting 0.9688. Break will extend that larger rise from 0.8698 towards 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone. However, break of 0.9300 will bring deeper fall back to 61.8% retracement of 0.8855 to 0.9688 at 0.9173.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Sep P 2.70% 2.50% -1.90%
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Sep 61.0K 62.0K 64.2K
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Sep -0.70% 0.50% 0.30%
12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Sep -0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Sep -1.80% 1.50% -2.20%
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 7.1M
18:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25%
20:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 3.50% 3.50%
   

Orders and Options Watch

US Session: Orders and Options Watch

EUR: The single currency remained confined in narrow range on back of huge option expires around 1.2700-25 area (over 3 bln), some offers are still noted at 1.2750, 1.2770 and 1.2785-90, mixture of offers and stops remains at 1.2800, sizeable sell orders are expected further out at 1.2820-25 and 1.2840-50. On the downside, bids remain at 1.2720-25, 1.2700-05 and 1.2685-90 (stops below), buy orders are expected at 1.2655-65 (more stops below 1.2650), 1.2620-35 area and 1.2600-10, more buying interest is tipped at 1.2585, 1.2565 and 1.2550.

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Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF - Hold short entered at 0.9480

Although the greenback recovered after yesterday's fall to 0.9445 and minor consolidation would be seen, as long as yesterday's high at 0.9511 holds, bearishness remains for the fall from 0.9559 to extend weakness to 0.9436 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9360-0.9559), however, break of support at 0.9395-98 is needed to retain bearishness and bring further decline towards said support at 0.9360.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD - Hold long entered at 1.6130

Although cable retreated after surging to 1.6183 (just faltered below previous resistance at 1.6184), reckon downside would be limited to 1.6100 and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.6183-84 would signal early rise from 1.5875 low has resumed and extend further gain for retracement of recent selloff to 1.6200-10, then towards 1.6250-60 but overbought condition should limit upside to 1.6275-80, however, reckon 1.6300 would hold

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1430 - 1500

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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