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Daily Report: Dollar Weakened on Rate SpeculationsDollar weakened this week as traders pushed back bet of first hike after comments from Fed officials. Federal funds futures are now showing less than 50% chance of rate hike by September next year, comparing to over 50% last week and nearly 70% two months ago. Chicago Fed president Charles Evans reiterated that he's opposed to Fed tightening before 1Q16 on "risk considerations". He also noted that a rising US dollar would create a "headwind" for the economy as it drags on exports and lowers import prices. These might lower the overall inflation. More importantly, Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer said over the week end in IMF meeting that while Fed's rate hike would not have a negative impact on the global economy, the first hikes might "trigger bouts of volatility, the normalization of our policy should prove manageable for emerging market economies". EUR/USD's recovery suggests that the corrective rise from 1.2500 isn't finished and could extend higher in near term. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.8647; (P) 0.8716; (R1) 0.8752; More... The break of 0.8784 minor resistance suggests that consolidation from 0.8642 is still in progress. Stronger rebound might be seen. But we'd expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9401 to 0.8642 at 0.8932 and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8642 will target next long term fibonacci level at 0.8544. |
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US Session: Orders and Options WatchEUR: The single currency dropped again and bids at 1.2650 and 1.2625 were filled but buy orders are reported at 1.2620 and 1.2600 (stops below), fresh demand should emerge around 1.2580-85, 1.2550-60 and 1.2500-10. On the upside, offers are lowered to 1.2670-75, 1.2700 and 1.2715-20 (stops above), sell orders are expected at 1.2730-40, 1.2765-70 and 1.2790-00(stops above 1.2810), selling interest is tipped 1.2820-25 and 1.2850. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD - Buy at 1.2585Although euro found support at 1.2605 and staged a rebound since, a break of resistance at 1.2716 is needed to signal the retreat from 1.2791 has ended and bring a stronger rebound to 1.2750, then retest of said resistance. If said resistance continues to hold, then further consolidation is in store and another fall to 1.2605 cannot be ruled out, however, support at 1.2584 should limit downside and bring another rebound later. Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY - Sell at 108.15Dollar's intra-day resumption of the decline from 110.09 temporary top suggests near term bearishness remains for this decline to extend weakness to 107.00 (50% projection of 109.90-107.53 measuring from 108.18), then test of previous support at 106.81, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 106.50-55 (1.618 times projection of 110.09-108.01 measuring from 109.90), risk from there has increased for a rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fundamental Highlights
Technical Highlights
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